Boxing · resolved market
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37a38415b6ee4998c4ac60751298b4c11f1102ff0281394bfd54edc6d1a81c6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Boxingevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Boxing is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Boxing | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 2cpaid | +525%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 75c | 1,793$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.91 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34d…0bd3backed Yes | 25c | 582.5$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked Yes | 4c | 520.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 4cpaid | +114.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…f310backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 76c | 399.98$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked No | 64c | 286.84$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.45 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…7935backed Yes | 25c | 262.03$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…f68dbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee82…f011backed Yes | 40c | 226.23$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…1a4fbacked Yes | 37c | 199.69$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419e…360abacked Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ea…b38bbacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3e…a9e5backed Yes | 23c | 105.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2704…cdd8backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 71c | 99.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1592…a305backed Yes | 23c | 87.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x092d…e367backed Yes | 34c | 87.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…3ff0backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…9782backed No | 75c | 76.73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4291…b6bdbacked Yes | 19c | 76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…3689backed No | 66c | 76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…adafbacked Yes | 25c | 56.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae1…b07ebacked Yes | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac13…6506backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3553…6e3cbacked No | 64c | 49.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…05e2backed Yes | 23c | 44.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9950…a5c7backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed No | 72c | 27.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Boxing and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Go the Distance?this page
- Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 2?Yes won
- Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 3?Yes won
- Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 4?Yes won
- Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 5?Yes won
- Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 6?Yes won
- Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.