Boxing · resolved market
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46d1d92c8e7fa7d17b20fec5fff3d5abda3f9487c765b5f523470b7811e4402a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Boxingevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Boxing is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Boxing | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed Yes | 59c | 6,838$4,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,808.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…cec7backed No | 44c | 5,297$2,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,331.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9b…0029backed No | 43c | 4,722$2,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,024.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3529…a599backed Yes | 55c | 3,664$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,663.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Yes | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed No | 55c | 1,358$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed No | 37c | 1,137$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.72 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…6edbbacked No | 42c | 986.06$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4499…d102backed No | 56c | 948.49$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 49c | 736$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…392cbacked Yes | 63c | 643$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x269f…24d6backed No | 49c | 615.8$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked No | 45c | 613.86$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…1fe3backed Yes | 62c | 562.3$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d95…f414backed Yes | 59c | 507.08$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee4…80f2backed Yes | 53c | 481.09$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked No | 53c | 468.02$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…082abacked No | 55c | 436.38$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…3046backed Yes | 47c | 372.93$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.18 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.36per pick | 48cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…d516backed No | 34c | 343.42$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Yes | 46c | 326.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c94…1f7dbacked Yes | 53c | 277.15$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 50c | 235.18$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.59 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a65…e883backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf95a…d895backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 22cpaid | +200.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…0055backed No | 44c | 175$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca21…b07cbacked Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x665b…73babacked Yes | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2704…cdd8backed Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd8…e1fbbacked Yes | 54c | 92.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +98%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed No | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…0997backed Yes | 63c | 79.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833e…2869backed Yes | 56c | 76.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 34c | 68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd1…c5f5backed No | 57c | 63.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6256…7181backed Yes | 58c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b7…1911backed No | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…6bccbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8a…3e67backed No | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17b2…fe16backed Yes | 54c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3553…6e3cbacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb098…1038backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf2…e87dbacked Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…7556backed No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Boxing and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 4?this page
- Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Go the Distance?No won
- Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 2?Yes won
- Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 3?Yes won
- Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 5?Yes won
- Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 6?Yes won
- Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.