TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xee82…f011

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
137
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: World Politics, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 53 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$196.39
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$86
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$28.21
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Over $8M committed to the Trove public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+63.9%+$7.8
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+100.8%+$100.8
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$96.12
Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Over $140M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Over $4M committed to the Trove public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+29.9%+$4.6
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$70.17
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+49.3%+$157.79
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+61.3%+$12.26
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+915.2%+$180.3
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+580.9%+$975.93
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$121.7
Plasma >$8B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$51.43
Plasma >$6B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT+72.2%+$14.43
Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$15.71
Will none of the named coins be listed on Coinbase in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$10
Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2024, EST-100%-$10
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT2133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-41.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$357.2
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$136
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,008Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$256.82
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$393Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+27.2%+$107
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$320
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$72.41
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$117.39
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Nothing Ever Happens: Khameneibacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+112.9%+$112.87
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the US strike Iran next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Israel strikes Iran by January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$475Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+36.1%+$171.37
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$42
Israel military response against Iran in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$12
All 21 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+37.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$444Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$444.36
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$737Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+57.9%+$426.69
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+122%+$121.97
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.9
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$87
Will voter turnout be 74–77% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.07
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.66
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+71.6%+$97.2
Will Tisza win 110–119 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$47
Will Tisza win 100–109 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Tisza win 120-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.5
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 85-99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$66
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$36.4
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+488.2%+$224.1
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.3
All 17 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1225%3 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$208.5
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+472%+$495.1
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$167.7
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.5
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.86
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+68.1%+$21.78
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$66.67
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.7
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$337.93
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 12 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-68.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.1
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$222.26
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$46.4
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 29-January 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 29-January 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$7.03
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-67.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$48
Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+130.3%+$26.07
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$792Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+26.3%+$208
Will the Fed cut-pause-cut in 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,296Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,296
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$89
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.87
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.98
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$30
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after November 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$10
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1010%1 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-76.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$57
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$198.43
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$44
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$55
Will Mark Zuckerberg attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$20
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$22
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST+138.1%+$60.76
All 10 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-69.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-59.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Nov 10, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Flames vs. Wildbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST+81.8%+$32.73
Utah vs. Senatorsbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$40
All 3 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+147.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Team Envy vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alphabacked Team Envy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$267Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+147.7%+$394.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+90.2%+$180.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+55.4%+$159
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
5kt meteor strike in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$5.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$189.81
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$18.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$456Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$456
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX (BO1)backed G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.