TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,834,983
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,590,910

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,834,983 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 372 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes3c125,738$3,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,631.474214.3%6 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x371c…c236backed Yes1c58,041$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.1813532.6%44 W · 91 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+24.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c55,789$1,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,624.6742818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes2c40,384$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.7316125.5%41 W · 120 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6452…9874backed Yes2c35,071$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d47…e488backed Yes4c30,445$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.4260%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc0…8a4dbacked Yes5c28,410$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.631910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-76.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes4c25,000$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.493823.7%9 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c22,097$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.737135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes1c20,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301128.9%10 W · 102 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+149.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfac3…5728backed Yes4c17,213$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73da…6b00backed Yes1c16,383$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bfb…7632backed Yes5c16,148$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8002245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c15,052$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.634625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes4c14,952$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.531430.7%1 W · 142 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-92.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes4c14,605$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.77779.1%7 W · 70 L-7.4wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-73.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes3c14,406$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.772476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes4c12,529$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.9935347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04db…a2dcbacked Yes6c11,225$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6502623.1%6 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a08…b114backed Yes3c10,658$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.36616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-68.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abe…6497backed Yes6c10,157$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5706132.8%20 W · 41 L+11.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+296.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503917.9%7 W · 32 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-52%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes3c10,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002814.3%4 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa3…da4abacked Yes2c9,741$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001553.3%8 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.25per pick28cpaid+71.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xb93e…b8fdbacked Yes5c9,194$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.38633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c9,014$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.364195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a0…f233backed Yes4c8,407$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.54100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bdf…eed3backed Yes6c8,150$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.31944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfcb…63efbacked Yes7c8,123$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6004533.3%15 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes1c7,403$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.95684.4%3 W · 65 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-87.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Yes4c7,072$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.434415.9%7 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d3a…d8b8backed Yes6c7,030$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.463525.7%9 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes3c6,986$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.83836%5 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes3c6,917$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.36694.3%3 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ab9…aff7backed Yes7c6,669$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…07edbacked Yes3c6,631$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.08170%0 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5a…ef75backed Yes2c6,559$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.5970%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes0c6,382$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.99673%2 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd512…79b3backed Yes2c6,008$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.694621.7%10 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x840e…e2b8backed Yes2c5,890$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.221414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-69.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes2c5,637$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.547611.8%9 W · 67 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08b1…113fbacked Yes4c5,556$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.61822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-42.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes5c5,526$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.3918338.3%70 W · 113 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe729…7300backed Yes4c5,447$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb273…aa63backed Yes5c5,353$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.897423%17 W · 57 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes2c5,312$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.231442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb624…3905backed Yes1c5,258$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes1c5,258$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8243212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc1…fdc6backed Yes3c5,249$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.45540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c5,152$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.431,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes2c5,100$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1241477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0e6…8197backed Yes2c5,070$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005014%7 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-42%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef1d…61a7backed Yes3c4,975$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x124b…8a69backed Yes4c4,930$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.072412.5%3 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e2e…13d6backed Yes2c4,912$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes4c4,901$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.0944224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f0c…f073backed Yes5c4,882$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes5c4,759$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.241995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes1c4,531$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.71720%0 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd754…8e70backed Yes2c4,470$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.26277.4%2 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-75.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes4c4,444$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.236750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3bea…f95abacked Yes5c4,334$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200319.7%3 W · 28 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-60.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes5c4,228$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.9142738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x173e…2d86backed Yes3c4,175$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113488.3%4 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50ca…8edbbacked Yes3c3,971$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01d1…12a4backed Yes4c3,970$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.295038%19 W · 31 L+8.1wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+99.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes3c3,920$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.733103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97b8…4163backed Yes3c3,856$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e53…b63abacked Yes5c3,743$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a54…ba75backed Yes4c3,652$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.031822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b01…8f47backed Yes4c3,629$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.556613.6%9 W · 57 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-68.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8db…c4c0backed Yes5c3,620$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5ae…85d1backed Yes5c3,616$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1681526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-50.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c32…b464backed Yes2c3,580$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.01647.8%5 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick12cpaid+16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes4c3,555$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505735.1%20 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes5c3,447$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.847513.3%10 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b22…e790backed Yes3c3,435$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa306…9802backed Yes8c3,301$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.441526.7%4 W · 11 L-4.0wins-0.26per pick53cpaid-45.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x355c…0200backed Yes6c3,280$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-55.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30c8…f51abacked Yes6c3,275$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.481241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-41.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked Yes4c3,080$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.987820.5%16 W · 62 L-11.5wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-54.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd7ef…41c3backed Yes7c3,060$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes3c3,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906330.2%19 W · 44 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b4b…05bfbacked Yes4c3,000$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-83.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3039…8a62backed Yes3c3,000$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77478.5%4 W · 43 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-51.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbffd…e7b8backed Yes3c2,875$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32f9…9158backed Yes1c2,870$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.78422.4%1 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-76.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…c98bbacked Yes2c2,866$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.98224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-69.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf80a…a38ebacked Yes2c2,838$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.561421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick14cpaid-24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9def…cacdbacked Yes3c2,800$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed Yes2c2,701$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.622458.3%14 W · 10 L+5.1wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+71.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Yes1c2,681$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.997311%8 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes4c2,638$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.3642329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcae1…119bbacked Yes8c2,632$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c81…8865backed Yes2c2,574$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.452412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes3c2,570$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5416832.1%54 W · 114 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes2c2,514$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504124.4%10 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed Yes3c2,500$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-62.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50d9…092fbacked Yes2c2,500$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4486…6f0bbacked Yes5c2,468$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.06333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+156.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.