TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7f0c…f073

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
47
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 52 out of 100; worst World Politics at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-85.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 10–20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$115.41
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 46% and 48%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$99.86
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$396Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$396.17
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 48% and 50%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$285.85
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$69.84
Will André Ventura win the second round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$18.27
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 0–10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$46.01
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be at least 56%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$84.83
Will António José Seguro win the second round by at least 50%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$21.32
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 54% and 56%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$68.93
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be less than 46%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$38.7
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 50% and 52%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+140.2%+$418.96
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 52% and 54%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$334Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$334.15
Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$951Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$951.4
Will Seguro win Portugal's Overseas Vote?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$85.62
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$67.2
All 17 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.4
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$226.9
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$87
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$59.1
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.94
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$11.53
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$249
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+1,330.7%+$998.27
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$524Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+336.7%+$1,764.82
Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 12-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$115
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 12-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+173.9%+$121.73
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 12-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 12-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$55
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 12-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$73
All 16 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-86.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.41
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$4,268Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+31.1%+$1,328.93
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.97
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$448Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$447.81
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.61
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$2,675Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,674.62
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.3
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,096Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,096.3
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$254
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$64.94
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$22.2
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$16.52
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$12.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$240
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.