World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be at least 56%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f247e51f48046b71da28bb1c81b9e222a7506c65f376ab6d0e18cf38dc54882
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ac1…9737backed Yes | 0c | 6,908$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 4,790$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.32 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…31abbacked Yes | 7c | 3,379$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.61 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…2febbacked Yes | 5c | 3,243$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.45 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 8c | 3,199$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.26 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c30…1cffbacked Yes | 11c | 2,800$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8375…82e9backed Yes | 5c | 2,570$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 9c | 1,384$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.67 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…f073backed Yes | 6c | 1,309$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 824.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7249…9c6cbacked Yes | 8c | 757.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 8c | 633.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5e…44e4backed Yes | 8c | 595.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 578.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…7a43backed Yes | 3c | 507.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 3c | 500.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 5c | 471.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 4c | 440$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d31…4ea9backed Yes | 5c | 416.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 5c | 414.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6f…e5b9backed Yes | 9c | 352.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…dfacbacked Yes | 15c | 336.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 6c | 313.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -62%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…ed0fbacked Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3692…e8edbacked Yes | 7c | 291.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 8c | 270.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 254.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 227.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…e0ddbacked Yes | 10c | 214.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…0c58backed Yes | 10c | 204.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 8c | 204.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 80 | 3.8%3 W · 77 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 193.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4250…5c32backed Yes | 8c | 180.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 6c | 169.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x449b…23cdbacked Yes | 45c | 80.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…ee7bbacked Yes | 26c | 76.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be at least 56%?this page
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 46% and 48%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 48% and 50%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 50% and 52%?Yes won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 52% and 54%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 54% and 56%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be less than 46%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.