World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be less than 46%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79f4e7c47f1b80916b9b57b5ee7da5d4c906db67d259e7d87a8e32f465816c62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $229,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $176,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 11c | 21,829$2,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,420.45 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 10c | 17,414$1,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,741.7 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 0c | 13,429$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…1cf9backed Yes | 1c | 10,766$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Yes | 7c | 8,987$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 10c | 6,125$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.61 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5e…44e4backed Yes | 2c | 5,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7249…9c6cbacked Yes | 4c | 5,394$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…01babacked Yes | 13c | 4,682$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.29 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 0c | 4,544$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x936e…473fbacked Yes | 8c | 4,003$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.08 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 10c | 3,090$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.09 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 15c | 2,917$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.35 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 1c | 2,275$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,100$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 13c | 2,088$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.75 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c3…3a41backed Yes | 13c | 1,765$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 11c | 1,745$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.2 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3a…94aabacked Yes | 15c | 1,605$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…3bd9backed Yes | 11c | 1,390$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.3 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 1,232$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.38 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 11c | 1,166$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.01 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c9…1b1abacked Yes | 10c | 1,127$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.7 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,116$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.14 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa688…0f82backed Yes | 1c | 1,024$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 9c | 900$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0a…60dfbacked Yes | 24c | 839.63$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 5c | 817.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 801.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 9c | 799.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 10c | 734.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 80 | 3.8%3 W · 77 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 652.73$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.24 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 647$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8408…5dcabacked Yes | 11c | 642.36$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 11c | 600$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146c…f5ccbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e19…669dbacked Yes | 9c | 500$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc68b…8c46backed Yes | 26c | 491.96$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…5155backed Yes | 21c | 480.57$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 8c | 447.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -62%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…dfacbacked Yes | 15c | 435.55$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d47…4045backed Yes | 13c | 403.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…f073backed Yes | 10c | 381.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 6c | 360.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 10c | 323.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7f…a00dbacked Yes | 34c | 293.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x449b…23cdbacked Yes | 7c | 276.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e94…71dabacked Yes | 15c | 225$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…7a43backed Yes | 20c | 224.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 215.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 212.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa0…be2dbacked Yes | 28c | 188.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 11c | 152.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…d07ebacked Yes | 26c | 149.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9b…553fbacked Yes | 10c | 149.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e36…e5ccbacked Yes | 10c | 148.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 144.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x873f…009abacked Yes | 18c | 122.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…9686backed Yes | 40c | 113.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 13c | 107.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca3e…40fabacked Yes | 19c | 103.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…2c98backed Yes | 14c | 71.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 74c | 48.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be less than 46%?this page
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be at least 56%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 46% and 48%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 48% and 50%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 50% and 52%?Yes won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 52% and 54%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 54% and 56%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.