World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 50% and 52%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf75140005f624131d6ae9f5634a7d53becce8179f7e8dff548af1ef1d99e98b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $204,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $213,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $204,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 45c | 31,032$13,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,151.22 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 72c | 10,120$7,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,818.66 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…e91ebacked Yes | 72c | 7,700$5,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,154.45 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…31abbacked Yes | 57c | 7,217$4,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,072.66 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 62c | 4,109$2,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.54 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 55c | 3,880$2,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,737.21 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceab…dce7backed Yes | 63c | 3,781$2,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,393.43 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 78c | 3,621$2,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,810.99 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 16c | 3,582$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,014.64 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 31c | 3,417$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,343.46 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d4…6dddbacked Yes | 65c | 3,403$2,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.28 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…dfacbacked Yes | 80c | 2,240$1,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.42 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 23c | 1,909$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.65 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f0…c0ebbacked No | 37c | 1,894$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…4c4cbacked No | 74c | 1,784$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,314.59 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 20c | 1,691$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.56 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 12c | 1,366$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.96 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,260$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.27 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,000$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.68 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8348…de9fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +4,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…ea77backed Yes | 71c | 934.69$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.71 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 58c | 872.91$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.48 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 871.71$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.84 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…c9fabacked Yes | 14c | 724.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…f073backed Yes | 42c | 717.73$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.96 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 48c | 607.04$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.31 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…f8dcbacked Yes | 7c | 600$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 9cpaid | +527.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 52c | 549.08$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.73 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1c26backed Yes | 77c | 542.3$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 27c | 542.06$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.66 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 46c | 526.52$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.47 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 21c | 524.73$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.43 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…550abacked Yes | 67c | 518.7$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.51 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 35c | 510$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.5 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 65c | 504.78$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.58 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1baa…6eb3backed Yes | 7c | 445$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +315.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 30c | 436.31$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.42 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 50c | 415$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 35c | 409.66$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.67 | 140 | 27.9%39 W · 101 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…c345backed Yes | 78c | 362.05$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a1…ab45backed No | 43c | 327$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 50c | 302.15$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.23 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 68c | 298.31$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.24 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…a2b6backed No | 5c | 287.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 30c | 281.87$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.48 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed No | 20c | 281.78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…3895backed Yes | 76c | 260$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 27c | 259.42$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.21 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -62%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473d…caabbacked Yes | 20c | 254.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 14c | 246.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.33 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 35c | 246.36$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked No | 13c | 222$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 8c | 220.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 21c | 213.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…11f4backed Yes | 71c | 209.15$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.17 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +13.2wins | +0.49per pick | 29cpaid | +167.8%equal weight | 78+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…ed0fbacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7249…9c6cbacked Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 23c | 171.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.28 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…01babacked Yes | 62c | 170$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873f…009abacked Yes | 24c | 151.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.06 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 54c | 147.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 18c | 146.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.41 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 23c | 133.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.39 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…0c58backed Yes | 70c | 133.34$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 18c | 133$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 28cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 65c | 125$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…c00cbacked Yes | 24c | 124.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.79 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 19c | 123.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.55 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 116.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.34 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 63c | 112.84$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1acd…c664backed Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e64…d644backed Yes | 80c | 95$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8672…fb6fbacked Yes | 61c | 89.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed Yes | 32c | 88.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.51 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…367abacked Yes | 17c | 88.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.07 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 53c | 80.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…5972backed No | 37c | 79.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 78.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.85 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc46…cbfabacked No | 20c | 78.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e83…3abbbacked Yes | 21c | 76.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +89%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 58c | 76.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 15c | 74.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cb…76f1backed Yes | 52c | 67.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…8586backed Yes | 50c | 60.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +144%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 31c | 57.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…2f95backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…d07ebacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 26c | 48.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 36c | 47.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed No | 44c | 45.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed Yes | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…2febbacked Yes | 69c | 44.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…3851backed No | 38c | 43.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727e…8b9dbacked Yes | 58c | 38.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a9…5976backed No | 40c | 38.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 50% and 52%?this page
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be at least 56%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 46% and 48%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 48% and 50%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 52% and 54%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 54% and 56%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be less than 46%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.