World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 48% and 50%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e2c45e7729970ccd2c44844b0d5323dab45f0045cbf3506352fa718c3b190b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $290,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $279,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $290,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7523…4c4cbacked Yes | 64c | 40,139$25,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,849.07 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 32c | 39,099$12,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,741.76 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 59c | 17,821$10,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,542.71 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 35c | 8,208$2,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,913.76 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 16c | 6,555$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.26 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Yes | 17c | 6,300$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.6 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…c345backed Yes | 77c | 4,387$3,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,393.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 40c | 3,884$1,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,553.89 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 21c | 3,744$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.05 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed Yes | 75c | 3,469$2,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,602.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d4…6dddbacked Yes | 32c | 3,403$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.14 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…dfacbacked Yes | 36c | 3,398$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.21 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 20c | 3,169$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.39 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…e91ebacked Yes | 27c | 3,165$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.07 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked No | 74c | 3,125$2,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.43 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 18c | 2,946$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.58 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f0…c0ebbacked Yes | 35c | 2,861$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…31abbacked Yes | 20c | 2,663$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.61 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 9c | 2,644$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.99 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 26c | 2,631$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.42 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 78c | 2,228$1,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,748.24 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 23c | 2,058$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.23 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 70c | 2,009$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.38 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…ea77backed Yes | 35c | 1,913$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.4 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 14c | 1,524$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.89 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 79c | 1,493$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 19c | 1,440$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.53 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,310$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc060…8956backed Yes | 39c | 1,268$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…f073backed Yes | 23c | 1,237$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.85 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…01babacked Yes | 3c | 1,179$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 18c | 1,093$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd562…5d09backed Yes | 40c | 1,024$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8934…ca30backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 22c | 999.97$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7f…a00dbacked Yes | 16c | 988.94$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 16c | 907.38$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.91 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cb…76f1backed Yes | 14c | 847.91$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.94 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d62…27e0backed Yes | 39c | 806$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.97 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 5c | 763.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…a896backed Yes | 10c | 720.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a1…ab45backed Yes | 26c | 700$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…1181backed No | 80c | 651.47$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.32 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 18c | 647.59$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.73 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 35c | 602.41$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.37 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…3895backed Yes | 11c | 540$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 523.23$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.11 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 60c | 506.98$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.07 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7249…9c6cbacked Yes | 21c | 477.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…5972backed Yes | 52c | 462.22$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 22c | 424.47$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.79 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -62%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 16c | 424.39$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.37 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 5c | 424$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 19c | 412.08$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.78 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 63c | 408.44$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.31 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 65c | 402.89$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.14 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xceab…dce7backed Yes | 18c | 385.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked Yes | 41c | 384.38$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 14c | 364.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.24 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…1a2fbacked Yes | 19c | 360.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 29c | 360.33$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.11 | 140 | 27.9%39 W · 101 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 79c | 350.01$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc46…cbfabacked Yes | 31c | 336.1$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 22c | 319.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked No | 15c | 305$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.74 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 25c | 255.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb2…8083backed Yes | 28c | 247.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 18c | 226.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…f3b5backed Yes | 37c | 209.14$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…b6c8backed No | 64c | 208$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.09 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9b…553fbacked Yes | 23c | 207.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1baa…6eb3backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +315.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…55a5backed Yes | 36c | 194.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7825…3534backed Yes | 38c | 183.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…5409backed Yes | 41c | 181.35$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…e0ddbacked Yes | 19c | 180.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 9c | 180.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…2febbacked Yes | 11c | 176.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f44…7470backed Yes | 22c | 168.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…c9fabacked Yes | 38c | 165.19$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 165.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x99de…acb4backed Yes | 12c | 160.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 147.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d450backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 26c | 136.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c5…bb2cbacked Yes | 13c | 128.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a9…5976backed Yes | 45c | 127.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40c…53f6backed Yes | 12c | 127.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b5…2a1bbacked Yes | 22c | 125$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…11f4backed No | 70c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…3bd9backed Yes | 14c | 119.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…e633backed No | 78c | 117$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 16c | 115.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…dc1cbacked Yes | 44c | 113.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e83…3abbbacked No | 35c | 105.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +89%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x686d…1a68backed Yes | 18c | 104.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe49e…55e3backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…b2ebbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 24c | 99.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 15c | 98.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 48% and 50%?this page
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be at least 56%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 46% and 48%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 50% and 52%?Yes won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 52% and 54%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 54% and 56%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be less than 46%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.