TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,511,077
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,032,860

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,511,077 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 376 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes2c342,350$6,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,239.71015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed7d…f966backed Yes2c135,000$2,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,13030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f88…b10ebacked Yes1c127,241$1,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,688120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60c…92debacked Yes1c90,391$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes2c51,441$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.811333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x104a…5b05backed Yes13c40,904$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2008017.5%14 W · 66 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes4c39,850$1,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,668.491022%2 W · 100 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-91.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c34,736$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.742290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c31,674$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.491360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c30,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x840f…e13cbacked Yes1c29,604$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe507…1258backed Yes4c28,000$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.951225%3 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd16c…f14bbacked Yes7c27,998$1,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,880.57166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-89.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes1c27,498$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+129.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes3c27,484$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.8463835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c24,793$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.793013.3%4 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ace…c7b7backed Yes2c24,743$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.0640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0c1…8a69backed Yes11c24,466$2,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,632.37137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4da…f756backed Yes9c23,488$2,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,202.273729.7%11 W · 26 L+6.7wins+0.18per pick12cpaid+349.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes7c23,203$1,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,598.06643.1%2 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-72.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes3c22,366$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.0211316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdef8…4607backed Yes1c22,356$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes2c22,287$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.919022.2%20 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-28.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd5f0…d29dbacked Yes9c21,958$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00080%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b89…fdf9backed Yes3c21,675$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.68229.1%2 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c21,029$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.866785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55be…021bbacked Yes10c20,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20400%0 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f1…8c65backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20506%3 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-90.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76c8…e383backed Yes2c17,811$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.47904.4%4 W · 86 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83f0…6ff5backed Yes11c17,468$1,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,991.11717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes2c16,768$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.9430%0 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b2f…d043backed Yes8c16,300$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3421827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf466…cc9fbacked Yes0c15,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2570%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf779…d36fbacked Yes2c14,200$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.41910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Yes9c14,139$1,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,311.432740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4dc…0da7backed Yes4c13,936$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.68267.7%2 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-56.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8852…cdaebacked Yes1c13,568$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27e1…704bbacked Yes1c13,026$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-85.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5987…5f98backed Yes10c12,670$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,277837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick13cpaid+69.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes10c12,000$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18614019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x723f…e169backed Yes7c11,658$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.85520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x253b…0ae7backed Yes4c11,399$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4126816.2%11 W · 57 L+8.3wins+0.12per pick4cpaid+273.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes1c11,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c10,950$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.851070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes4c10,399$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.173998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes4c10,126$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.036813.2%9 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd52c…6d97backed Yes9c10,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a61…68fbbacked Yes10c9,982$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+73.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac9…ca59backed Yes10c9,901$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.162920.7%6 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick13cpaid+74.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaecf…a030backed Yes1c9,806$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.66180%0 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x398a…8a92backed Yes0c9,428$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x069f…66bcbacked Yes1c9,158$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4374…0317backed Yes3c8,599$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf346…5701backed Yes12c8,189$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick12cpaid+452.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes1c7,990$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.960%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes3c7,625$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.392683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca5…8727backed Yes10c7,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7504515.6%7 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+280.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4c1…0f60backed Yes1c7,391$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.57362.8%1 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-79.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes3c7,367$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.831375.8%8 W · 129 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes3c7,031$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.841285.5%7 W · 121 L+0.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe68d…ec13backed Yes1c6,951$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c6,376$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.951490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb90…c9a0backed Yes1c6,250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0640…4c5cbacked Yes1c6,215$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.07110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5ea…4524backed Yes5c6,196$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.16119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-35.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e7…55b5backed Yes8c6,075$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick11cpaid+424.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes1c5,910$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9451…c3f9backed Yes4c5,708$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22590%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x976a…5fbbbacked Yes1c5,583$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1fdc…b235backed Yes5c5,479$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick8cpaid+152%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x507d…4ff0backed Yes8c5,286$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.17633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+275.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504721.3%10 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca1…d685backed Yes1c4,838$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes5c4,789$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.131067.5%8 W · 98 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61e2…4958backed Yes1c4,725$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30200%0 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes1c4,541$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.57180%0 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes1c4,402$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9913117.6%23 W · 108 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1c2…89abbacked Yes3c4,400$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.4402.5%1 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-63%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73b9…47c4backed Yes8c4,312$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33870%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c4,275$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.531,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a4…faafbacked Yes1c4,167$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa8bf…345abacked Yes11c4,100$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5680…9305backed Yes12c4,093$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49140%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b67…9a9dbacked Yes1c4,057$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes1c4,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb956…a190backed Yes9c3,875$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.86650%3 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+357.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes4c3,846$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.662425%6 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7233…d9ecbacked Yes0c3,533$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f64…52d2backed Yes1c3,425$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39190%0 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0083…9a76backed Yes1c3,392$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01cd…7bacbacked Yes9c3,338$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.06633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick9cpaid+315.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x722a…2d19backed Yes1c3,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes0c3,200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97d6…7ce6backed Yes4c3,200$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.940%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9573…f39dbacked Yes4c3,185$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.051513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes1c3,142$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.282581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d0a…fe24backed Yes1c3,050$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0b9…08b3backed Yes10c3,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300862.5%5 W · 3 L+3.9wins+0.49per pick13cpaid+552.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.