TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,296,072
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,816,551

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,296,072 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes12c197,452$23,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,330.8163835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1963…dd0cbacked Yes6c135,219$7,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,504.89714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-39.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes7c125,000$8,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,849.8112025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Yes25c103,940$25,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,481.822015%3 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-67.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes12c103,000$12,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,323.997327.4%20 W · 53 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-59.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd8e5…a18dbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes18c93,638$16,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,901.535123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x89cf…ec79backed Yes7c86,708$5,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,771.69714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes4c84,035$3,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,202.071015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e0…016abacked Yes6c79,446$5,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,118.8970%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceec…4ad9backed Yes9c58,533$5,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,100.8100%0 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes17c54,705$9,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,463.26333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2424…3b61backed Yes15c54,173$8,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,368.93520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c52,089$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.051488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes1c51,723$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.49130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes7c50,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,60060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4da…f756backed Yes16c48,783$7,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,669.713729.7%11 W · 26 L+6.7wins+0.18per pick12cpaid+349.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes1c46,286$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.38320%0 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f7f…2352backed Yes10c44,148$4,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,320.665726.3%15 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed No77c43,824$33,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,242.0214337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes17c42,550$7,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,300.0364812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c37,002$2,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,255.166785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92be…1a4cbacked Yes23c35,077$7,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,921.33450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+32.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes2c35,000$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.4728021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes0c33,481$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.96541.9%1 W · 53 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-69.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb26…03febacked Yes9c31,737$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7d7…cf9bbacked Yes10c29,899$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c29,878$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.051490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed No72c28,500$20,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,882.92536%9 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53c2…6758backed Yes1c28,269$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes1c28,036$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.574754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6810…38a3backed Yes6c27,505$1,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,585.761631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+58.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4343…3be2backed Yes6c26,285$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,464.421216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes2c26,000$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.651288.6%11 W · 117 L-9.0wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5145…2dd5backed Yes17c23,971$3,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,988.131136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick14cpaid+155%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6dba…c5ffbacked Yes39c23,382$9,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,113.75450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+92%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes9c22,557$2,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,002.328920.2%18 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd14…1c17backed Yes33c21,235$7,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,004.315954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d6d…0a6cbacked No78c20,859$16,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,509.263318.2%6 W · 27 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5192…78a4backed Yes7c20,617$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc747…324bbacked Yes5c20,000$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.976622.7%15 W · 51 L+12.3wins+0.19per pick4cpaid+272.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203013.3%4 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed No68c19,999$13,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,499.821752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+66.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x846f…750ebacked Yes21c19,750$4,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,183.2613038.5%50 W · 80 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09d3…4e84backed Yes1c18,939$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes10c18,370$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80014213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63e9…cb1ebacked Yes8c18,047$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,432.7760%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes8c17,824$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,393.943998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc51…b71cbacked Yes17c17,682$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.930%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xede5…7802backed Yes2c16,998$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.0280%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8869…c975backed Yes9c15,435$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3201010%1 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x22c6…50c6backed Yes3c15,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+482.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dc5…a303backed Yes5c14,943$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730130%0 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b09…015cbacked Yes7c14,701$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.295016%8 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1385…1cf9backed Yes10c14,661$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50080%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes0c14,068$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.07310%0 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes16c14,040$2,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,298.41933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa16c…866abacked Yes6c13,800$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7851513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked Yes2c13,491$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.121414.3%2 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-71.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes4c13,308$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.021422.1%3 W · 139 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed Yes0c13,037$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.04260%0 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbc6…43c4backed Yes0c13,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1370%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a95…c43ebacked Yes11c12,817$1,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.66728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8392…b94ebacked Yes20c12,765$2,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,518.8540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b48…ecadbacked Yes4c12,593$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.5290%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e8e…c968backed No74c12,553$9,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,221.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b67…a9d6backed Yes10c12,420$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,275.41837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+115.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8193…3581backed Yes1c12,323$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes9c12,311$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0592010%2 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-83.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95d4…c38cbacked No39c12,163$4,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,431.532540%10 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…9b5ebacked Yes22c12,112$2,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6254422.7%10 W · 34 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12710%0 W · 71 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4382…1d63backed Yes9c12,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.7440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd00e…fb86backed Yes2c11,964$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe44a…c4f8backed Yes8c11,793$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.773522.9%8 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes7c11,779$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.073724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-33.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes0c10,680$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.62306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0067…3d12backed Yes1c10,650$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4fc…a926backed No47c10,637$5,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,635.173246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes9c10,207$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.7713117.6%23 W · 108 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes9c10,201$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.0714019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10400%0 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8735…46e5backed Yes27c10,000$2,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,729.64100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ba…bc23backed Yes10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes7c10,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes10c9,879$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.463010%3 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b7…924dbacked Yes10c9,801$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.04450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+141.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes6c9,778$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.032683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41da…f8e8backed Yes7c9,745$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.213910.3%4 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1585…8bbbbacked Yes6c9,246$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.091915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd93b…3d69backed Yes26c9,165$2,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,373.23616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-70.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc70f…5de7backed Yes1c8,925$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.271010%1 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-38.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes2c8,891$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes35c8,800$3,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,038.991241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes9c8,500$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7542326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa183…a3d8backed Yes32c8,439$2,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,664.481127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-54.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeade…f26dbacked Yes20c8,344$1,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,653.91346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed No68c8,336$5,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,700.8333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-50.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x784d…d27dbacked Yes4c8,325$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3332729.6%8 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.