TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,328,348
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,642,386

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,328,348 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xce90…d285backed Yes0c199,999$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300229.1%2 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick3cpaid-65.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c191,130$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.13792.5%2 W · 77 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-96%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Yes0c169,911$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.8260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c109,282$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.61488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf08f…6e0abacked Yes1c64,820$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.960%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes0c51,000$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1661022%2 W · 100 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-91.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7862backed Yes0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40c5…5cbabacked Yes0c43,805$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.0740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c32,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd16c…f14bbacked Yes1c27,625$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-89.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b67…b194backed Yes1c25,663$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82c…bc91backed Yes0c23,192$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c20,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c91…b9d4backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-88.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffff…3455backed Yes1c18,073$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.36120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes0c16,011$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.041333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x75ea…a356backed Yes0c15,232$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeed…de39backed Yes0c14,999$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2955…b736backed Yes1c14,853$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.48296.9%2 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-84.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes1c13,968$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.55430%0 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1598…7b97backed Yes0c13,666$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked Yes1c12,245$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0480%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2fa…1432backed Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6598…0b0bbacked Yes0c11,493$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4850%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa694…3f17backed Yes1c11,224$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3330…1884backed Yes1c11,095$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9629…b148backed Yes0c10,092$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0980%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10400%0 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0862…9e24backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5e3…6002backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-67.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf744…c459backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4719…7448backed Yes0c9,900$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03e0…48f8backed Yes1c9,118$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e7…2298backed Yes1c9,000$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c8,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1c2…89abbacked Yes0c7,405$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.62402.5%1 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-63%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4c1…0f60backed Yes1c7,362$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.53362.8%1 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-79.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce7d…342cbacked Yes1c6,992$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb32…eb69backed Yes0c6,666$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76c8…e383backed Yes1c6,531$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.88904.4%4 W · 86 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9404…7cf2backed Yes1c6,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5080%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes1c6,249$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes0c6,039$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2563…b450backed Yes0c6,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dbe…e415backed Yes1c5,900$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-80.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes1c5,354$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.959022.2%20 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-28.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes0c5,174$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.56785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7860…df60backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5ec…f7eabacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x208a…ab0fbacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fdc…b235backed Yes1c5,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick8cpaid+152%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+129.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea7f…9637backed Yes1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick6cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8493…e006backed Yes1c4,772$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.33150%0 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05ad…7560backed Yes1c4,005$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.03140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d0f…fc2fbacked Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x753f…2a5fbacked Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x531f…c8c2backed Yes0c3,560$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6850%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfbd…1782backed Yes0c3,500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick1cpaid+580.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd996…2ababacked Yes1c3,469$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23140%0 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes1c3,353$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.023998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b26…488bbacked Yes1c3,294$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ebf…eb92backed Yes1c3,030$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6438…255bbacked Yes0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2828…5cdcbacked Yes0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes1c2,859$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.211375.8%8 W · 129 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes0c2,818$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.172683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes1c2,801$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151285.5%7 W · 121 L+0.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…6607backed Yes1c2,718$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes1c2,600$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.41067.5%8 W · 98 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb48a…516abacked Yes1c2,569$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81b…5828backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3690…de80backed Yes1c2,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick15cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bd5…cb75backed Yes1c2,250$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a29…0db8backed Yes1c2,010$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3653…8cb6backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3b…ecd3backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2666…a790backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick2cpaid+1,049.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x869a…d680backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ef…3532backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8703…2a40backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0cf…bb28backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15e2…2cc1backed Yes3c1,797$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf629…57e3backed Yes1c1,376$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10290%0 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e5a…b99cbacked Yes1c1,338$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7280%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf764…1919backed Yes1c1,333$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-81.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe096…43b7backed Yes1c1,250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf609…e68bbacked No66c98$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.321384.6%11 W · 2 L+3.9wins+0.30per pick55cpaid+89.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x447f…f362backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x339c…9559backed No60c17.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-67.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.