TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,546,147
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,104,792

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,546,147 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1bc0…4429backed Yes1c200,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Yes0c199,997$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b09…015cbacked Yes6c196,096$11,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,305.275016%8 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Yes3c170,432$5,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,738.292015%3 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-67.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d6d…0a6cbacked Yes1c158,671$2,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,358.043318.2%6 W · 27 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x658b…01b8backed Yes1c81,574$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.7234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40c5…5cbabacked Yes2c77,311$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.2640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes0c74,892$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.78130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9a9…9bf7backed Yes2c58,347$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes2c51,518$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.2223411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c49,600$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.441488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes4c47,942$1,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,747.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd996…2ababacked Yes2c32,834$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.4140%0 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c29,065$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.421490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8193…3581backed Yes0c28,900$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe44a…c4f8backed Yes2c28,058$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.913522.9%8 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c27,262$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.056785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x006a…818fbacked Yes0c25,943$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c24,347$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.041070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa416…025ebacked Yes4c24,215$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.33728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x328c…cbbcbacked Yes2c22,659$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4201816.7%3 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-66.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd29a…86f1backed Yes5c19,416$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x269c…d7debacked Yes1c18,356$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.62120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked Yes1c17,778$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0980%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb330…9547backed Yes1c17,263$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes5c17,000$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.953010%3 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2fe…7d2abacked Yes1c16,833$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b94…fcb6backed Yes2c14,590$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.441030%3 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick16cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7be3…a32fbacked Yes1c12,984$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes2c12,216$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.229022.2%20 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-28.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x03fa…02bbbacked Yes1c11,821$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4191…c243backed Yes1c11,818$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0640…4c5cbacked Yes1c11,362$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.53110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes1c10,017$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.823998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x58fd…43a6backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39c0…ae83backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401022%2 W · 100 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-91.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes2c9,363$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.442683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…a979backed Yes1c8,966$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.963225%8 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes2c8,705$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.91375.8%8 W · 129 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes2c8,586$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.591285.5%7 W · 121 L+0.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba14…59e9backed Yes1c8,538$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cac…d93fbacked Yes1c8,394$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab4e…ba10backed Yes1c8,181$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a0b…b8f7backed Yes1c7,981$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7c4…1378backed Yes2c7,935$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.49714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x252a…c9c8backed Yes1c7,606$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.63837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick20cpaid+99%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x48c8…72a4backed Yes1c7,426$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8970%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes3c7,402$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.596813.2%9 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc241…1487backed Yes2c7,361$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.342951.7%15 W · 14 L+7.0wins+0.24per pick28cpaid+122.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes3c7,302$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.757810.3%8 W · 70 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes1c7,115$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1c2…89abbacked Yes2c7,000$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137402.5%1 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-63%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x566d…c460backed Yes1c6,777$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+75.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96ea…66f5backed Yes2c6,381$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6960%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25e1…6735backed Yes1c6,333$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c40…445cbacked Yes1c5,842$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes2c5,757$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.091067.5%8 W · 98 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9732…def8backed Yes1c5,675$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfbd…1782backed Yes0c5,400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick1cpaid+580.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78a2…6658backed Yes2c5,013$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2440%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes1c5,001$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.01482.1%1 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes1c5,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3ef…b430backed Yes2c5,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4c1…0f60backed Yes2c5,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80362.8%1 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-79.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes2c4,983$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.78540%34 W · 51 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes2c4,863$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fc0…767dbacked Yes2c4,822$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c4,472$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.07985.1%5 W · 93 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb17…2a33backed Yes1c4,286$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1118…262ebacked Yes0c4,189$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes0c4,177$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2424…a4a2backed Yes3c4,153$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.9340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc2d…c5a5backed Yes5c4,146$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-74%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47a3…ccedbacked Yes5c4,103$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-41.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6271…784ebacked Yes0c3,750$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152718.5%5 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed Yes2c3,571$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751353.8%7 W · 6 L+3.8wins+0.30per pick24cpaid+60.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x737a…05e0backed Yes1c3,549$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8493…e006backed Yes1c3,503$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.48150%0 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…2f8bbacked Yes3c3,448$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-28.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes1c3,319$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.752581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes1c3,283$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.64180%0 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe67…d964backed Yes4c3,211$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1221811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc323…0f5ebacked Yes8c3,176$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.98742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick10cpaid+274.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x561c…730cbacked Yes1c3,080$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43160%0 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41da…f8e8backed Yes1c2,911$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.943910.3%4 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf095…b4bbbacked Yes2c2,890$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+208.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56cb…6bd7backed Yes2c2,869$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6937…7340backed Yes1c2,857$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf3e…7366backed Yes1c2,857$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd175…0a56backed Yes1c2,821$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0d8…f5e2backed Yes1c2,800$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28362.8%1 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-72.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes5c2,762$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0547…9926backed Yes5c2,748$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick42cpaid-7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c2,598$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.24163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Yes4c2,500$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99466.5%3 W · 43 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-87.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ec…d2f4backed Yes2c2,435$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes5c2,428$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.2430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a6d…7104backed Yes1c2,232$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.51513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-52.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf779…d36fbacked Yes2c2,200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.791910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.