TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,486,532
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,898,357

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,486,532 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xce90…d285backed Yes0c147,413$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.24229.1%2 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick3cpaid-65.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39de…a94bbacked Yes0c135,983$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes1c124,570$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.281022%2 W · 100 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-91.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f88…b10ebacked Yes0c121,440$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c99,634$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.63792.5%2 W · 77 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-96%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebbc…f254backed Yes0c96,270$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c87,625$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.251488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes0c70,000$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3221015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf08f…6e0abacked Yes1c41,289$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.2860%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed Yes0c39,999$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40506%3 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-90.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c37,756$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.512290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf73…7744backed Yes1c34,024$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c31,968$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.381070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa236…db7cbacked Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76c8…e383backed Yes2c21,727$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.35904.4%4 W · 86 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd16c…f14bbacked Yes1c20,849$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-89.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c91…b9d4backed Yes0c19,992$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-88.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes0c18,888$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.89300%0 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x594c…9b29backed Yes1c17,328$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x141b…0139backed Yes0c16,667$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf779…d36fbacked Yes1c16,500$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1221910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes0c15,647$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9629…b148backed Yes1c13,895$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6480%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d66…a0c0backed Yes1c13,441$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes1c12,995$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.914754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes1c12,642$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.57430%0 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa98…cd18backed Yes1c12,397$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ed…d936backed Yes1c12,321$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5760%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2fa…1432backed Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aae…d469backed Yes1c11,441$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81d1…bc6ebacked Yes1c11,441$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef69…0347backed Yes1c10,839$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e73…c064backed Yes1c10,799$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0862…9e24backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1c2…89abbacked Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50402.5%1 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-63%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+129.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked Yes1c9,722$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8980%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes1c9,242$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6711316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c6f…50dbbacked Yes1c8,889$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac21…b3b2backed Yes1c8,052$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4325…cd10backed Yes1c7,944$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d9c…47f2backed Yes1c7,883$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf51…a223backed Yes1c7,873$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc908…b6b6backed Yes1c7,722$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc22…3e94backed Yes1c7,672$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b19…d962backed Yes1c6,666$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda00…79bcbacked Yes0c6,666$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd046…5b00backed Yes1c6,217$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2862…78dcbacked Yes0c6,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cbe…8076backed Yes1c5,720$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13cb…a48abacked Yes1c5,700$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579913.1%13 W · 86 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc33b…2372backed Yes2c5,193$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-70.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1598…7b97backed Yes1c5,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5ec…f7eabacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cd3…5c96backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe77a…b9a6backed Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2955…b736backed Yes1c4,869$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.94296.9%2 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-84.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x396e…f075backed Yes1c4,440$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c4,232$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.726785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ba8…6326backed Yes1c4,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c4,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes1c4,000$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf23d…213fbacked Yes1c3,423$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05ad…7560backed Yes1c3,276$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.66140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c54…1bddbacked Yes1c3,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241010%1 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224c…ee07backed Yes1c2,857$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203020%6 W · 24 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+142.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0b52…4db0backed Yes1c2,632$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.696053.3%32 W · 28 L+7.7wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+3.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9852…65dabacked Yes1c2,502$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes1c2,475$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.033998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b26…488bbacked Yes1c2,448$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61e2…4958backed Yes1c2,400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20200%0 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ca1…72aebacked Yes1c2,361$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00e6…c87ebacked Yes1c2,333$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+59.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x15e2…2cc1backed Yes4c2,300$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.27175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes1c2,267$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.242683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes1c2,140$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.262729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes1c2,140$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.781375.8%8 W · 129 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bba…08a5backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes1c2,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.71285.5%7 W · 121 L+0.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4650…d84fbacked Yes1c1,958$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceb6…0783backed Yes1c1,950$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf629…57e3backed Yes1c1,875$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15290%0 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3051…7b31backed Yes1c1,827$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5987…4884backed Yes1c1,818$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes1c1,700$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51067.5%8 W · 98 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes1c1,675$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.249022.2%20 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-28.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9197…3cb7backed Yes1c1,571$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd609…40f4backed Yes1c1,514$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6496.1%3 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b9…9471backed Yes1c1,429$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick3cpaid+300.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x431a…6984backed Yes1c1,351$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.75240%0 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfbd…1782backed Yes1c1,300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick1cpaid+580.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcd7…d3ccbacked Yes1c1,250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10560%3 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick22cpaid+212%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5a8…d4c0backed Yes1c1,201$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick3cpaid+175.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf63a…d769backed Yes1c1,057$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4dc…0da7backed Yes2c1,053$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.16267.7%2 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-56.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2085…b28abacked Yes1c1,036$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1160%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6991…2370backed Yes1c932.89$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+177.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc208…97b1backed Yes2c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.52133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0726…ab5cbacked Yes3c454.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8212…5933backed Yes3c428.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153743.2%16 W · 21 L+8.1wins+0.22per pick21cpaid+189.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.