TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,829,222
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,212,644

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,829,222 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 245 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb4f2…7862backed Yes0c2,712,239$6,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,134.4850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x115d…f608backed Yes0c1,988,716$1,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,988.72250%0 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes0c1,751,513$2,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,823.3130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes0c1,693,763$6,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,175.21140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c1,473,573$4,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,069.48234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid-87.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3285…05aebacked Yes0c1,161,298$2,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,029.12450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c460,876$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.871488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7266…116abacked Yes0c413,660$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ca…2453backed Yes0c389,038$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.0830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaf5…75e5backed Yes0c347,945$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.9130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce90…d285backed Yes0c341,432$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.3229.1%2 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick3cpaid-65.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6786…0d36backed Yes0c298,614$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.6140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef58…b722backed Yes0c264,893$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a94…8a1dbacked Yes0c217,791$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.17175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-90.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2763…5eedbacked Yes0c205,122$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc171…aa19backed Yes0c188,306$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8530…be7fbacked Yes0c181,329$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a00…d741backed Yes0c166,663$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0527…f6d1backed Yes0c158,222$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ed…6f16backed Yes0c133,333$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes0c125,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50090%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91df…1136backed Yes0c117,811$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c111,101$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.1792.5%2 W · 77 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-96%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e8a…2861backed Yes0c109,167$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f04…1a93backed Yes0c102,808$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacfe…d62cbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x604b…67b5backed Yes0c96,623$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cfa…c39dbacked Yes0c96,083$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40c5…5cbabacked Yes0c92,308$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.9340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6b8…ec39backed Yes0c89,525$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd44b…f081backed Yes0c82,736$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.4720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfc4…6f2dbacked Yes0c77,172$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92f1…46c1backed Yes0c75,042$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eb6…fd8ebacked Yes0c75,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0e7…ebd3backed Yes0c73,499$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c21…3d68backed Yes0c71,591$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0784…f127backed Yes0c70,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb6a…4fa3backed Yes0c68,667$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6631…e50cbacked Yes0c68,000$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb991…ba03backed Yes0c67,879$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x406b…f22bbacked Yes0c66,741$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fe0…e5aebacked Yes0c66,249$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3541…b4b1backed Yes0c65,712$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d7a…545bbacked Yes0c64,644$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22fe…bf23backed Yes0c62,154$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f68…0714backed Yes0c61,032$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e27…1c22backed Yes0c60,437$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8889…9ec5backed Yes0c60,340$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2fe…699dbacked Yes0c60,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f34…4d1ebacked Yes0c59,991$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x793c…6c5dbacked Yes1c57,747$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.7450%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf35…9598backed Yes0c55,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdeea…1e6bbacked Yes0c53,020$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59af…872ebacked Yes0c52,145$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b67…b194backed Yes0c51,779$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e9…e539backed Yes0c50,325$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4572…34bfbacked Yes0c50,124$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c75…fc8bbacked Yes0c50,001$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x577a…51a7backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001022%2 W · 100 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-91.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35cc…c7c9backed Yes0c47,768$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bf2…6729backed Yes0c46,171$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c46,123$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.251070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a6…3d49backed Yes0c46,102$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x486b…bf84backed Yes0c45,935$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeead…88e7backed Yes0c45,934$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be4…3b8ebacked Yes0c45,928$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1974…de56backed Yes0c45,928$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf14…9470backed Yes0c45,907$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bb9…624dbacked Yes0c45,894$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43e1…dc1cbacked Yes0c45,893$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa837…71b9backed Yes0c45,891$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6772…199ebacked Yes0c45,856$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64f8…e768backed Yes0c45,853$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f4…28b7backed Yes0c43,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1267…54a0backed Yes0c42,375$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes0c41,209$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.1911316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x364e…433cbacked Yes0c41,000$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59e4…147bbacked Yes0c40,633$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1e0…547dbacked Yes0c40,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae08…b0fdbacked Yes0c40,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa560…db50backed Yes0c38,988$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb366…73ebbacked Yes0c36,664$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d9e…3a2ebacked Yes0c35,165$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc25a…c62ebacked Yes0c35,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2651…6967backed Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0594…e07cbacked Yes0c32,630$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f0…001dbacked Yes1c32,166$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa044…f4f1backed Yes0c32,081$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dd5…7f2cbacked Yes0c30,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddd4…cda9backed Yes0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-57.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x595f…5611backed Yes0c25,001$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcccb…d731backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0fb…a834backed Yes0c25,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c34…4b67backed Yes0c25,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99e5…e44fbacked Yes0c25,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb6…ff78backed Yes0c23,353$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked Yes0c22,222$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5680%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e18…e894backed Yes0c20,456$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c91…b9d4backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-88.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.