TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$474,777
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$483,750

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $474,777 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8be3…51dabacked No0c62,000$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No34c19,393$6,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,680.1658126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3526…aababacked Yes77c16,000$12,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6805425.9%14 W · 40 L+8.0wins+0.15per pick11cpaid+83.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed No0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x986b…56bcbacked No21c14,239$2,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,992.092528%7 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked No23c11,804$2,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,657.942740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed No22c8,995$1,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,98663835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe14b…1ad3backed No13c7,692$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.963633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked No21c7,272$1,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,534.4387828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed2f…8f01backed No25c7,173$1,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,782.6960%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4f1…2417backed No18c6,921$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,245.71513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ad…b2d3backed No12c6,601$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.115639.3%22 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb148…bb0ebacked Yes74c6,500$4,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,718.271533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-48.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed No16c6,456$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.6237745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf986…bc7dbacked No27c6,265$1,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7041533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1461…22d8backed No9c5,837$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.822777.8%21 W · 6 L+7.0wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+29.2%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No20c5,797$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.2864812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x15e6…3c2bbacked Yes77c5,170$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,170.181338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x716d…4206backed Yes75c4,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0002733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes52c3,909$2,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,890.922550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01e7…d932backed Yes73c2,981$2,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.412152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+110.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b92…45eebacked Yes70c2,839$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.451233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+72.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x95e5…0920backed No22c2,825$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.5728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick16cpaid+28.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6294…33f3backed Yes75c2,590$1,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.96657.6%38 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5714…119dbacked Yes67c2,500$1,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.021553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No22c2,490$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.383324.2%8 W · 25 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-50.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x98fc…5382backed No69c2,401$1,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,661.56366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7860…07a8backed Yes70c2,393$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+22.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked No11c2,287$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.166813.2%9 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe642…9440backed No19c2,217$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.88540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed No34c2,209$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.933164.5%20 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbbf0…28c0backed Yes79c2,200$1,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+223.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Yes69c2,128$1,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.54475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed No21c1,975$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.652718.5%5 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x926d…635ebacked Yes70c1,874$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.931060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae70…abfbbacked No19c1,811$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-73.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No14c1,799$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.924136.6%15 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd561…9b7bbacked No14c1,635$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.833452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307219.4%14 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0340…6907backed Yes77c1,400$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1087…013bbacked Yes69c1,376$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.73613.9%5 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe21…65e5backed Yes73c1,370$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b78…e410backed No53c1,352$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick30cpaid-87.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f02…1395backed Yes47c1,348$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.581952.6%10 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick31cpaid+332.5%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xbaac…ff10backed Yes73c1,300$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3511258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b2…0559backed No23c1,300$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b2f…d043backed Yes77c1,300$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2991827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd512…79b3backed Yes68c1,245$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.93757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick34cpaid+202.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked No13c1,234$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.422326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-51.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked No16c1,210$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.13998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x825a…8835backed Yes33c1,203$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.94988.9%8 W · 1 L+4.5wins+0.50per pick39cpaid+141.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x16f0…aba5backed Yes35c1,054$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.096543.1%28 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes73c1,021$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.2512259.8%73 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce09…6b0bbacked Yes70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3003658.3%21 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89f0…1e62backed Yes65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa96c…d1c7backed No28c999.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Yes75c985.58$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.1826274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed No22c976.42$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.091741.2%7 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick60cpaid-37.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc9df…d8bcbacked No21c968$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xede1…7dd1backed Yes74c900$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2341533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd28…374abacked No28c845.06$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.742748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa46f…d199backed No24c834.71$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001020%2 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-64.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2a4b…5e66backed Yes75c818$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.141050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c1…1b90backed No8c800$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2965…c74abacked Yes64c800$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31c1…bc19backed Yes75c779.08$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed No16c704.23$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1152828.6%8 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8393…d5a1backed Yes69c695.26$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb783…30e3backed Yes76c657.89$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x747b…f422backed Yes76c627.42$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.322152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x277e…7d32backed Yes71c600$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1743786.5%32 W · 5 L+7.6wins+0.21per pick66cpaid+31.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x1a44…5e33backed Yes75c599.99$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1503762.2%23 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0066…394fbacked No17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2fb1…fb84backed Yes46c547.55$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.642850%14 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+44.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2165…8075backed Yes70c540$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1624671.7%33 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+15.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7ff3…00b3backed Yes37c539.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3401258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick38cpaid+111.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbcfe…6563backed No30c533.33$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+179.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc632…55bebacked Yes70c512.27$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.683611.1%4 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x899f…7fcfbacked No28c508.89$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe44a…c4f8backed Yes68c500$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1613522.9%8 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed No23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf196…2709backed No31c483.87$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+48.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x00b9…4ca6backed Yes52c470.36$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.63650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x917c…66f2backed Yes75c466.67$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.671050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d42…00a2backed No22c447.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeeb5…f7cebacked No22c445.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9442…2ccebacked Yes72c442.66$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.3250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes71c422.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.541346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick33cpaid-7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…837abacked Yes71c422.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.54250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb78d…835dbacked No31c405.09$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1252755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8242…6577backed Yes73c400$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No3c399.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc241…1487backed Yes69c350$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1102951.7%15 W · 14 L+7.0wins+0.24per pick28cpaid+122.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xab59…ea9abacked Yes76c341.11$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.87812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-83.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9aa…67e1backed No20c340.23$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.05616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick29cpaid+24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No26c334.06$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.828920.2%18 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe38b…8996backed No15c326.18$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.193740.5%15 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda16…5bf9backed Yes74c325.84$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2d9…f193backed No12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3660%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4156…dcd6backed Yes73c300$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811973.7%14 W · 5 L+5.5wins+0.29per pick45cpaid+56.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.