TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,957,660
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,871,650

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,957,660 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x256b…cd5dbacked Yes4c181,423$7,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,603.012015%3 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-67.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes1c116,931$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.972010%2 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-83.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Yes1c100,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d6d…0a6cbacked Yes2c83,422$1,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.183318.2%6 W · 27 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes4c75,847$2,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,882.553010%3 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b09…015cbacked Yes7c47,614$3,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,412.815016%8 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c42,000$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes2c34,111$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.6560%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c33,235$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.961488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c31,979$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.236785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d64…738ebacked Yes2c26,526$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.2440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47b5…a045backed Yes1c23,689$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c22,850$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.891490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe44a…c4f8backed Yes3c21,838$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.293522.9%8 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes2c20,058$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.219022.2%20 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-28.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1af1…7b88backed Yes1c20,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503414.7%5 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick7cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes0c18,321$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes4c15,000$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.411323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7be3…a32fbacked Yes1c14,287$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15090%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70a4…eff2backed Yes11c14,068$1,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,523.998713.8%12 W · 75 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes0c13,582$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.91482.1%1 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c13,011$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.031070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb301…79ddbacked Yes1c12,417$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick5cpaid+164.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c10,011$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.01710%0 W · 71 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10400%0 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfabf…55f1backed Yes3c10,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd255…3c50backed Yes1c10,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803030%9 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes2c8,663$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.353998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x042a…b153backed Yes1c8,588$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes1c8,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x658b…01b8backed Yes1c8,168$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.94234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3efc…a721backed Yes2c7,756$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc241…1487backed Yes2c7,620$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.472951.7%15 W · 14 L+7.0wins+0.24per pick28cpaid+122.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x75dc…239dbacked Yes4c7,471$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.621822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-67.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes2c7,449$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.182683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2424…a4a2backed Yes8c7,326$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes2c7,180$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.811375.8%8 W · 129 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0486…fbc2backed Yes1c7,141$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.380%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x566d…c460backed Yes2c7,025$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+75.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes2c6,553$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.718540%34 W · 51 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a3f…7112backed Yes2c6,511$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.212512%3 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes3c6,317$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.131285.5%7 W · 121 L+0.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2fe…7d2abacked Yes2c6,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03fa…02bbbacked Yes1c6,081$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c6,078$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.141,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf85…d62ebacked Yes3c5,995$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.38147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-86.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61e2…4958backed Yes1c5,576$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.08200%0 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1779…eef2backed Yes2c5,527$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes1c5,269$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.893724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-33.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fce…2566backed Yes1c5,200$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.23627.8%10 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf095…b4bbbacked Yes3c5,158$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.76911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+208.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3690…de80backed Yes1c5,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick15cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27af…2127backed Yes3c5,000$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3746…f6aabacked Yes3c5,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-47.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes4c4,977$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.776813.2%9 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa416…025ebacked Yes9c4,682$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.03728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x561c…730cbacked Yes1c4,401$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8160%0 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4150…ebdabacked Yes6c4,401$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ddd…53ebbacked Yes0c4,357$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.71850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb166…20b5backed Yes1c4,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8838…218bbacked Yes2c4,176$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes1c3,984$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.572581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c3,900$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.84163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes3c3,871$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.361067.5%8 W · 98 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7744…23f2backed Yes1c3,538$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3247…4254backed Yes10c3,505$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.3770%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes1c3,434$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.88180%0 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7c4…1378backed Yes2c3,409$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80e0…c3c4backed Yes3c3,400$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+124.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes2c3,368$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.838920.2%18 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x48c8…72a4backed Yes1c3,365$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1870%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8952…1f26backed Yes8c3,348$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.39728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff3…a188backed Yes5c3,330$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.14633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes2c3,265$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.97985.1%5 W · 93 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96ea…66f5backed Yes2c3,236$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9160%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1118…262ebacked Yes1c3,116$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes10c3,042$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.3164812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed Yes5c3,007$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501353.8%7 W · 6 L+3.8wins+0.30per pick24cpaid+60.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7ca7…81ddbacked Yes11c3,000$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba38…a9e1backed Yes1c2,868$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b37…67a4backed Yes2c2,862$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ce9…aacabacked Yes1c2,804$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c2,799$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.881970%0 W · 197 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4fe…d5dabacked Yes1c2,744$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfda0…e341backed Yes1c2,677$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe652…264fbacked Yes1c2,673$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4c1…0f60backed Yes4c2,660$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115362.8%1 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-79.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes1c2,632$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1614019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99f8…f072backed Yes1c2,550$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.25300%0 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bc3…d183backed Yes1c2,528$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8790%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bee…b990backed Yes8c2,481$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x324f…495dbacked Yes4c2,429$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb330…9547backed Yes2c2,393$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8508…9fdabacked Yes3c2,324$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602321.7%5 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick9cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb2b…370ebacked Yes1c2,303$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde5…1d80backed Yes7c2,156$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.453732.4%12 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes6c2,127$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.347810.3%8 W · 70 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes2c2,041$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.892528%7 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0d8…f5e2backed Yes1c2,007$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.99362.8%1 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-72.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.