TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,541,582
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,465,826

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,541,582 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 661 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes7c359,283$24,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,253.2163835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes3c230,415$6,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,990.2223411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes11c175,596$19,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,981.1735123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes5c143,909$6,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,854.717327.4%20 W · 53 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-59.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes6c119,715$7,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,639.583010%3 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d6d…0a6cbacked Yes5c115,852$5,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,595.343318.2%6 W · 27 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Yes5c110,606$6,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,082.922015%3 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-67.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes4c100,000$3,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,65060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes2c80,673$1,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,381.191015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e0…016abacked Yes2c64,953$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.6370%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c45,698$2,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,027.726785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x944f…28dabacked Yes5c44,817$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4601330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+139.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7d7…cf9bbacked Yes5c43,175$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b2f…d043backed Yes10c38,955$3,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,870.981827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b09…015cbacked Yes6c38,530$2,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,179.665016%8 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb7e…f1bebacked Yes3c36,706$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c98…ef88backed Yes6c34,738$2,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,157.42494.1%2 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-79.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5838…8d71backed Yes5c34,073$1,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc92c…7750backed Yes8c33,433$2,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,510.78520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed55…d480backed Yes10c29,428$2,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,838.28966.7%6 W · 3 L+4.5wins+0.50per pick16cpaid+338.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c29,202$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.11490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes2c28,926$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.141022%2 W · 100 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-91.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc747…324bbacked Yes3c28,131$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.196622.7%15 W · 51 L+12.3wins+0.19per pick4cpaid+272.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes12c27,788$3,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,289.0664812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3c77…6e76backed Yes7c27,634$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0012114.3%3 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ba…bc23backed Yes4c27,075$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes3c22,530$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.673724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-33.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8869…c975backed Yes3c20,991$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.481010%1 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8172…abeabacked Yes15c20,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0002020%4 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203013.3%4 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xceec…4ad9backed Yes5c16,550$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800100%0 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5145…2dd5backed Yes5c15,160$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.791136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick14cpaid+155%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x83f0…6ff5backed Yes10c14,918$1,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.371717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe44a…c4f8backed Yes5c14,753$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.523522.9%8 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aea…10c9backed Yes1c14,704$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-68.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c14,644$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.64710%0 W · 71 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfa3…7e1cbacked Yes4c14,467$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.881315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-55.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e88…0425backed Yes3c14,301$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes5c14,091$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.593998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Yes0c13,900$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.03466.5%3 W · 43 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-87.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbca5…8727backed Yes4c13,778$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.564515.6%7 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+280.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes4c13,772$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.118920.2%18 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0067…3d12backed Yes1c13,702$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.9660%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41da…f8e8backed Yes4c13,687$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.873910.3%4 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75dc…239dbacked Yes7c13,400$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.451822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-67.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a23…50febacked Yes15c13,251$2,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,012.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc241…1487backed Yes5c13,218$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.132951.7%15 W · 14 L+7.0wins+0.24per pick28cpaid+122.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe2fd…4959backed Yes2c13,191$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.941816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick18cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70f0…8406backed Yes9c12,720$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,09530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4343…3be2backed Yes8c12,522$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.651216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x623e…bf68backed Yes2c12,379$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed Yes0c12,171$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.17260%0 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11ab…c8a7backed Yes4c12,111$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.11175.9%1 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes2c11,871$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290786.4%5 W · 73 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes4c11,838$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.68180%0 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa33f…6403backed Yes9c11,512$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e47…dbcabacked Yes7c11,257$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.571258.3%7 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.28per pick31cpaid+185.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8193…3581backed Yes1c11,233$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8508…9fdabacked Yes5c11,197$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.182321.7%5 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick9cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa16c…866abacked Yes7c11,103$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7921513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa479…6a67backed Yes3c11,092$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.65166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-81.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ef…df7dbacked Yes4c11,002$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.57250%0 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed Yes9c11,000$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.46850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-30.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c11,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes5c10,939$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.592683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7be3…a32fbacked Yes4c10,600$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40090%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes0c10,507$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51310%0 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes0c10,433$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.872010%2 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-83.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63e9…cb1ebacked Yes3c10,402$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.7660%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefbd…8086backed Yes3c10,227$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.53190%0 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeade…f26dbacked Yes17c10,117$1,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,731.141346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97d4…d66abacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Yes1c9,616$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.39366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6708…bea3backed Yes1c9,105$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes8c9,047$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.746813.2%9 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1585…8bbbbacked Yes3c8,943$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.451915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes5c8,928$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.061375.8%8 W · 129 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2eb…403cbacked Yes3c8,900$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9453…25b6backed Yes2c8,863$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.7360%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee0b…f049backed Yes9c8,796$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.851637.5%6 W · 10 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick14cpaid+209.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xede5…7802backed Yes4c8,694$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.3680%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a61…2727backed Yes8c8,129$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0640…4c5cbacked Yes3c8,124$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.99110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa416…025ebacked Yes14c7,898$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.94728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8212…5933backed Yes7c7,817$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.273743.2%16 W · 21 L+8.1wins+0.22per pick21cpaid+189.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes4c7,811$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.159022.2%20 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-28.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes0c7,605$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.431970%0 W · 197 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes5c7,430$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.651285.5%7 W · 121 L+0.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes8c7,385$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…a979backed Yes4c7,068$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.363225%8 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x177e…a2babacked Yes0c6,928$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96ea…66f5backed Yes4c6,874$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.2560%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee45…e055backed Yes10c6,800$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.781637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61c3…71b3backed Yes9c6,786$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d64…738ebacked Yes2c6,775$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.9440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf095…b4bbbacked Yes3c6,534$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.69911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+208.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec6a…afccbacked Yes2c6,500$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes4c6,473$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.07160%0 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes3c6,452$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dc5…a303backed Yes0c6,423$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25130%0 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.