TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,831,697
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,492,149

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,831,697 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 795 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1963…dd0cbacked Yes2c488,109$7,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,969.74714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-39.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes4c218,910$7,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,860.951015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1461…22d8backed No75c79,327$59,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,164.642777.8%21 W · 6 L+7.0wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+29.2%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes6c77,917$5,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,038.9563835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes12c76,248$9,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,122.7528021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes5c73,782$3,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,506.161333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f88…b10ebacked Yes4c66,961$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,900120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4da…f756backed Yes31c62,432$19,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,330.563729.7%11 W · 26 L+6.7wins+0.18per pick12cpaid+349.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes1c61,798$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.48911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-74.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4399…e034backed Yes1c61,012$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes7c53,154$3,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,816.09643.1%2 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-72.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0c1…8a69backed Yes14c48,457$6,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,784137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c47,959$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.962290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8e5…a18dbacked Yes0c37,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f64…52d2backed Yes1c35,362$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.16190%0 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f5…cbbebacked Yes1c35,317$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.56110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed No79c33,922$26,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,108.0514337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18b…0f98backed Yes1c33,686$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.3260%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70da…fc5bbacked Yes11c31,306$3,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,410.930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3822…b720backed Yes12c31,217$3,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,789.958634.9%30 W · 56 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7277…ab80backed Yes19c28,605$5,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,555.321154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick29cpaid+42.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x944f…28dabacked Yes29c28,178$8,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,2981330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+139.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c23,627$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.016785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7d7…cf9bbacked Yes13c22,880$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x102f…7a56backed Yes19c22,592$4,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,372.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x422e…8a52backed Yes2c22,247$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.8280%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes36c22,227$8,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,083.271361.5%8 W · 5 L+4.1wins+0.31per pick30cpaid+562.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0fe4…01b7backed No73c20,667$15,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,494.926835.3%24 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c19,237$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.24710%0 W · 71 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c19,175$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.54163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3fe…3f4fbacked No74c18,580$13,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,882.841855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507d…4ff0backed Yes8c18,462$1,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.66633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+275.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes0c18,307$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.31310%0 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bef…62a4backed Yes7c18,243$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.63215.6%5 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef03…eb12backed Yes1c18,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes1c17,704$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.82306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd93b…3d69backed Yes32c16,869$5,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,394.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-70.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f69…d657backed Yes4c16,860$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.2728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick9cpaid+184.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed Yes0c16,282$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.28260%0 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0bf…2032backed Yes12c16,020$1,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,968.152619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-66.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes9c16,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x716d…4206backed Yes37c15,000$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5002733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c14,637$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.221970%0 W · 197 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44fb…4ababacked Yes2c14,421$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.07140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4af2…c0d6backed Yes7c14,411$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4661…a2a8backed Yes2c14,144$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes6c14,074$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.363998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes26c13,233$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5006723.9%16 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+111.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb061…5b1cbacked Yes13c13,075$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,709.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes10c13,000$1,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.812528%7 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes1c12,257$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.52922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ef…df7dbacked Yes2c11,765$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%0 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes17c11,031$1,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,883.3964812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x51ba…bc23backed Yes9c10,983$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbc6…43c4backed Yes0c10,837$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8470%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf26…319bbacked Yes17c10,596$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,750333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d35…23c1backed Yes10c10,460$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.12040%8 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+46%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes23c10,350$2,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,410.491022%2 W · 100 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-91.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4124…8af2backed No66c10,326$6,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,510.842152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8dda…6ec7backed Yes29c10,276$2,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,985.083030%9 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x057f…9a25backed Yes1c10,226$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.750%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1be…3772backed Yes13c10,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3002412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b89…fdf9backed Yes1c10,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60229.1%2 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb715…8924backed Yes12c9,946$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b91…e572backed Yes9c9,700$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.423716.2%6 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-56.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes5c9,441$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.278920.2%18 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6756…8edcbacked No73c9,184$6,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,473.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e7…55b5backed Yes8c8,992$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.04742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick11cpaid+424.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f7c…d582backed Yes8c8,255$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.51100%0 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes1c8,240$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.661422.1%3 W · 139 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb956…a190backed Yes7c8,068$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.52650%3 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+357.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0e09…05bbbacked Yes5c7,648$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9762…3febbacked Yes16c7,637$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-53.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes6c7,601$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.0811316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf466…cc9fbacked Yes0c7,472$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81f4…b6dcbacked Yes10c7,152$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.812025%5 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07bd…d1cdbacked Yes4c7,140$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.49170%0 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Yes26c7,101$1,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,873.244242.9%18 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00ee…54f8backed Yes1c7,099$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bbe…776dbacked Yes29c7,035$2,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,021.081844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x478f…f5d9backed Yes15c6,706$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes3c6,542$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.852683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed Yes5c6,246$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.833514.3%5 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-77.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6561…c074backed Yes6c6,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3801154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f15…3e1dbacked No78c6,000$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.97475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f8…e95bbacked Yes15c6,000$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.99812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-82.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01cd…7bacbacked Yes6c5,936$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.86633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick9cpaid+315.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ff2…5113backed Yes18c5,763$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5080…d89abacked Yes29c5,691$1,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,660.01475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x068d…70d3backed Yes2c5,610$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.524517.8%8 W · 37 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick6cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes4c5,493$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.642581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed Yes12c5,376$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.251315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-54.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd16c…f14bbacked Yes19c5,192$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-89.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0490…2a0dbacked Yes13c5,092$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x423d…54eebacked Yes6c5,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.66333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5590…8e3dbacked Yes1c5,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81a5…5e5ebacked Yes2c4,823$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-82.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2828…5cdcbacked Yes4c4,698$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee45…e055backed Yes15c4,574$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.11637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c92…c646backed Yes6c4,547$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.291154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.21per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.