TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,356,963
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,063,179

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,356,963 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51d9…cb1abacked Yes0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes1c161,000$1,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9611022%2 W · 100 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-91.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ee…5864backed Yes0c148,252$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa33…944fbacked Yes0c148,152$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9104…9a7fbacked Yes0c146,052$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f88…b10ebacked Yes0c109,253$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf856…4f09backed Yes0c103,834$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c68,182$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.771015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes1c63,962$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.65430%0 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c58,428$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.43792.5%2 W · 77 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-96%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20f7…382bbacked Yes2c47,547$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012120%0 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf779…d36fbacked Yes1c42,600$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.21910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c28,631$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.761490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c24,409$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.231070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c24,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24710%0 W · 71 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20506%3 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-90.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b67…9a9dbacked Yes1c19,200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9044…e5e7backed Yes1c19,098$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x253b…0ae7backed Yes2c15,384$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3056816.2%11 W · 57 L+8.3wins+0.12per pick4cpaid+273.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa740…ee18backed Yes2c15,375$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.09478.5%4 W · 43 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-85.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b2f…d043backed Yes3c15,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c12,654$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.796785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb49f…f084backed Yes0c12,450$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b48…ecadbacked Yes2c12,288$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.6990%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf575…0791backed Yes3c11,298$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001637.5%6 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.25per pick13cpaid+315.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes1c11,087$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.69022.2%20 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-28.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c11,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaade…4d4fbacked Yes2c10,876$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4dc…0da7backed Yes2c10,718$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220267.7%2 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-56.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87f6…a919backed Yes1c10,673$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked Yes2c8,950$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.92432.3%1 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick15cpaid-96.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2cdf…22e9backed Yes0c7,920$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes1c7,656$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ab4…02d6backed Yes1c7,143$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes1c7,001$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.05306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aa0…ac87backed Yes1c7,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd16c…f14bbacked Yes6c6,723$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-89.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes1c6,395$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9213117.6%23 W · 108 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes1c6,153$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.473998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1c2…89abbacked Yes1c6,000$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64402.5%1 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-63%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf741…ca9ebacked Yes1c5,999$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f0…d29dbacked Yes3c5,357$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15080%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e56…1c96backed Yes1c5,350$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bff…3322backed Yes1c5,191$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.48425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-57%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39ef…99e9backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes1c5,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402313%3 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-74.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6896…361dbacked Yes2c4,954$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes2c4,900$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1031333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x27e1…704bbacked Yes0c4,698$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-85.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes3c4,538$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.2711316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes1c4,408$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.551375.8%8 W · 129 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes2c4,393$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.571285.5%7 W · 121 L+0.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70e7…a700backed Yes1c4,286$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick4cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes1c4,272$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.991693.6%6 W · 163 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa10…8da4backed Yes1c4,200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x601a…c57ebacked Yes1c4,200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc80…89e8backed Yes1c4,200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7d8…0947backed Yes1c4,200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes1c4,200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.92683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63dd…7336backed Yes2c4,164$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1550%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5ea…4524backed Yes4c4,150$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.56119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-35.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e5…c597backed Yes1c4,100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c8…5696backed Yes1c4,100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a5e…5285backed Yes1c4,100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x738f…cb96backed Yes1c4,100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73b5…f657backed Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55f2…df6bbacked Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe23c…66b5backed Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed66…e84cbacked Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9404…7cf2backed Yes3c3,927$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd760…db85backed Yes1c3,900$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e5d…9df8backed Yes1c3,900$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d0a…fe24backed Yes1c3,870$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked Yes2c3,804$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6280%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14fb…71e6backed Yes1c3,800$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x473b…7a0dbacked Yes1c3,800$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd677…0d24backed Yes1c3,800$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa85b…a554backed Yes1c3,800$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes0c3,775$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.33180%0 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x431a…6984backed Yes2c3,648$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.09240%0 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes2c3,581$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.541067.5%8 W · 98 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe86c…739bbacked Yes1c3,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe46…721cbacked Yes9c3,204$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick13cpaid+216.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed Yes5c3,200$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.371711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-77.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bbe…1808backed Yes1c3,196$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa50c…6f84backed Yes3c3,047$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2955…b736backed Yes1c3,010$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35296.9%2 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-84.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1657…e510backed Yes1c3,007$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2160%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7567…c2a7backed Yes3c2,971$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.68812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-69%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a01…29bbbacked Yes2c2,856$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cb2…fef4backed Yes1c2,714$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c2,700$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.34163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61e2…4958backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10200%0 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6afe…1bbebacked Yes2c2,490$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4c1…0f60backed Yes2c2,381$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45362.8%1 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-79.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec83…ecc4backed Yes2c2,285$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c1…1b90backed Yes3c2,100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c2,031$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.49985.1%5 W · 93 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae2…ce78backed Yes1c2,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.