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World Politics · resolved market

Will Seguro win Portugal's Overseas Vote?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$245,906
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$229,211

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,906 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x564f…7034backed Yes7c25,524$1,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,864.963135.5%11 W · 20 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid-20.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b5e…e91ebacked Yes26c18,848$4,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,883.511154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick42cpaid-8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked No69c17,503$11,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,505.24459.1%26 W · 18 L+6.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked No67c16,383$10,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,474.326737.3%25 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No72c11,217$8,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,109.125337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c5b…0584backed Yes29c8,873$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6002114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-78.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes34c8,682$2,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,910.810037%37 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4619…3f91backed Yes30c8,126$2,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,467.152360.9%14 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf107…b9babacked Yes52c6,369$3,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,328.043928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No67c6,224$4,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,064.5943243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f0c…f073backed Yes2c4,871$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.62175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-85.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e5e…44e4backed Yes2c4,838$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked Yes41c3,762$1,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5551618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.21per pick40cpaid-73.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb3b…a2b6backed Yes0c3,643$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.07380%0 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x662a…77b7backed No57c3,516$2,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,494.44475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+37.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec0c…8589backed Yes31c3,317$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.07520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-72.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed No65c3,160$2,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.1816535.8%59 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f14…7efbbacked Yes6c2,979$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No78c2,902$2,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.1415230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7779…99f5backed Yes13c2,661$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54db…0174backed Yes53c2,293$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.2619722.8%45 W · 152 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes31c2,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab19…ccc1backed Yes1c1,990$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes20c1,917$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.3314947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes35c1,779$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.4630433.6%102 W · 202 L+18.5wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed No73c1,737$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.2210122.8%23 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-52.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked No67c1,721$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.368632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x34d5…a977backed No69c1,613$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c30…1cffbacked No71c1,560$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.21333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-52.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa0…3895backed No65c1,421$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.51275%9 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed No65c1,416$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.591526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-43.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba86…b2acbacked Yes21c1,409$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.46922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d86…5073backed Yes28c1,300$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.291330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-42.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No71c1,200$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34824736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7369…5f41backed No71c1,190$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77d4…3983backed Yes38c1,171$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.33250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes31c1,109$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.7413444.8%60 W · 74 L+17.1wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+13.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes20c1,086$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.2880%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked Yes11c908$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.881216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No64c806.3$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.118943.8%39 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92eb…986abacked Yes26c799.99$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-47.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No73c799.99$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2163135.5%11 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-44.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc8b…b15ebacked Yes42c768.06$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.182920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-0.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d1…21c7backed Yes33c745.77$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.31723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+122.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes14c714$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.967526.7%20 W · 55 L+9.2wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+63.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xca48…33b6backed Yes34c693.21$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc68b…8c46backed Yes28c646.43$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes37c630$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.11931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8f…5e62backed No68c595.83$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa62c…804ebacked Yes2c573.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes25c520$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.1450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb26d…20d4backed Yes13c499.71$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.76520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-72.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ec9…75c7backed No68c480$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-75.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed No66c450$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.28143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a67…0913backed No72c405$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No74c400$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10655334.5%191 W · 362 L-38.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f94…6929backed Yes35c394.67$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.5840%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1521…24cfbacked Yes31c382.34$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c66…31e3backed No71c350$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.5955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No58c349.65$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.8815932.7%52 W · 107 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+102.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab1…5b1bbacked No68c343.33$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.111618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-72.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes36c342.16$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.1813334.6%46 W · 87 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes14c320.06$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.47216.7%12 W · 60 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-55.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb167…9c59backed No70c294.36$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.912100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f1…28acbacked No69c293.23$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.74450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91b3…0568backed No72c265.01$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-65.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21e7…6757backed Yes21c257.3$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3640%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d24…2e44backed Yes26c249.42$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.83425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-67.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x417e…15e5backed Yes29c243.51$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed No55c232.61$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.55032%16 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37aa…01f4backed No75c231.58$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x153b…65d8backed Yes43c230.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x529d…6381backed Yes53c219.84$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.53046.7%14 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8952…1f26backed Yes52c211.43$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95b9…3762backed No72c209.74$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bbd…9ec2backed Yes32c204.97$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.541250%6 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+87.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes37c201.47$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7428430.3%86 W · 198 L+0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2456…a383backed No73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024021.3%51 W · 189 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked No64c200$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7315022.7%34 W · 116 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+43%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6db3…1ae1backed Yes39c200$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e5f…95e2backed No74c196.78$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.161631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a6…be36backed Yes29c177.44$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4750%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2177…3fb4backed Yes36c170.62$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.832326.1%6 W · 17 L-4.7wins-0.21per pick47cpaid-52.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8547…39abbacked No55c160.1$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.051145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+56.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd084…27eabacked Yes38c151.57$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.88425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0330…eb8fbacked No63c150.09$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.785729.8%17 W · 40 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58ff…7e02backed No65c150$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda5d…1617backed Yes35c150$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78b3…b95abacked No68c150$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick68cpaid+29%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda98…7504backed No67c150$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes34c150$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.116940.2%68 W · 101 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5aa…c200backed Yes37c149.97$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.492441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc0a…95cabacked No66c145.2$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.71346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe947…7a45backed No49c144.77$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.1417044.1%75 W · 95 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0373…ff0dbacked No71c137.95$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.522560%15 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No73c132.5$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4215446.8%72 W · 82 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe02b…ed0fbacked Yes32c130$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.61030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid+38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes29c127.72$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.236742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2c8…4675backed Yes33c125.27$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0740%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.