World Politics · resolved market
Will Seguro win Portugal's Overseas Vote?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6166ee447b69afa549ee205574e29695662f19e35a274a5960869150779f214
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $245,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $229,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 7c | 25,524$1,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,864.96 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…e91ebacked Yes | 26c | 18,848$4,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,883.51 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked No | 69c | 17,503$11,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,505.2 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked No | 67c | 16,383$10,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,474.32 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 72c | 11,217$8,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,109.1 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Yes | 29c | 8,873$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 34c | 8,682$2,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,910.8 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4619…3f91backed Yes | 30c | 8,126$2,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,467.15 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf107…b9babacked Yes | 52c | 6,369$3,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,328.04 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 67c | 6,224$4,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,064.59 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…f073backed Yes | 2c | 4,871$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.62 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5e…44e4backed Yes | 2c | 4,838$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 41c | 3,762$1,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,555 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…a2b6backed Yes | 0c | 3,643$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…77b7backed No | 57c | 3,516$2,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,494.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 31c | 3,317$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 65c | 3,160$2,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.18 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f14…7efbbacked Yes | 6c | 2,979$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 78c | 2,902$2,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.14 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7779…99f5backed Yes | 13c | 2,661$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 53c | 2,293$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.26 | 197 | 22.8%45 W · 152 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes | 31c | 2,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…ccc1backed Yes | 1c | 1,990$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 20c | 1,917$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.33 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 35c | 1,779$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.46 | 304 | 33.6%102 W · 202 L | +18.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 73c | 1,737$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.22 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked No | 67c | 1,721$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.36 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed No | 69c | 1,613$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c30…1cffbacked No | 71c | 1,560$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…3895backed No | 65c | 1,421$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 65c | 1,416$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.59 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…b2acbacked Yes | 21c | 1,409$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed Yes | 28c | 1,300$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.29 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 71c | 1,200$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7369…5f41backed No | 71c | 1,190$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d4…3983backed Yes | 38c | 1,171$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 31c | 1,109$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.74 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,086$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.28 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 11c | 908$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 64c | 806.3$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.11 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…986abacked Yes | 26c | 799.99$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 73c | 799.99$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…b15ebacked Yes | 42c | 768.06$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.18 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d1…21c7backed Yes | 33c | 745.77$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.3 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 14c | 714$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca48…33b6backed Yes | 34c | 693.21$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc68b…8c46backed Yes | 28c | 646.43$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 37c | 630$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.1 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…5e62backed No | 68c | 595.83$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62c…804ebacked Yes | 2c | 573.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Yes | 25c | 520$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…20d4backed Yes | 13c | 499.71$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec9…75c7backed No | 68c | 480$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed No | 66c | 450$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a67…0913backed No | 72c | 405$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 400$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 553 | 34.5%191 W · 362 L | -38.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…6929backed Yes | 35c | 394.67$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…24cfbacked Yes | 31c | 382.34$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed No | 71c | 350$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 58c | 349.65$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.88 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab1…5b1bbacked No | 68c | 343.33$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.11 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 36c | 342.16$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.18 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 14c | 320.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…9c59backed No | 70c | 294.36$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f1…28acbacked No | 69c | 293.23$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b3…0568backed No | 72c | 265.01$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21e7…6757backed Yes | 21c | 257.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed Yes | 26c | 249.42$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…15e5backed Yes | 29c | 243.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed No | 55c | 232.61$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37aa…01f4backed No | 75c | 231.58$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…65d8backed Yes | 43c | 230.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed Yes | 53c | 219.84$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8952…1f26backed Yes | 52c | 211.43$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b9…3762backed No | 72c | 209.74$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbd…9ec2backed Yes | 32c | 204.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 37c | 201.47$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.74 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2456…a383backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 240 | 21.3%51 W · 189 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 64c | 200$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6db3…1ae1backed Yes | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…95e2backed No | 74c | 196.78$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a6…be36backed Yes | 29c | 177.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2177…3fb4backed Yes | 36c | 170.62$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 55c | 160.1$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.05 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…27eabacked Yes | 38c | 151.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked No | 63c | 150.09$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.78 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda5d…1617backed Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b3…b95abacked No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda98…7504backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…c200backed Yes | 37c | 149.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0a…95cabacked No | 66c | 145.2$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 49c | 144.77$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…ff0dbacked No | 71c | 137.95$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 132.5$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…ed0fbacked Yes | 32c | 130$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 29c | 127.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…4675backed Yes | 33c | 125.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.