World Politics · resolved market
Will António José Seguro win the second round by at least 50%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x171e6f018ce9960035e555a689dfa6c2ddd00770cbcd4e2e10a8d5fe695f0eae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $389,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $389,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1710…3344backed Yes | 1c | 26,042$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa031…79e4backed Yes | 0c | 23,570$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ea…3391backed Yes | 0c | 20,126$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb388…06d5backed Yes | 0c | 11,050$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…62babacked Yes | 5c | 10,585$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x995d…126ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7918…2034backed Yes | 0c | 9,959$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…bfa7backed Yes | 0c | 9,193$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 9,062$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 1c | 7,774$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cb…ff9cbacked Yes | 7c | 6,859$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 6,235$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.08 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b574backed Yes | 2c | 6,209$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 3c | 6,010$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.03 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9768…6a39backed Yes | 1c | 5,793$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,335$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.37 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed Yes | 4c | 5,140$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bc…1ba7backed Yes | 0c | 4,862$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…4254backed Yes | 5c | 4,522$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…97a1backed Yes | 2c | 4,460$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc610…5d03backed Yes | 1c | 3,740$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb70…2d58backed Yes | 0c | 3,673$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Yes | 4c | 3,537$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.42 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 1c | 3,472$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,143$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 2c | 3,112$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5e…44e4backed Yes | 3c | 3,020$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 2,844$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 2,651$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd74a…ca0bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,596$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 2,553$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,539$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 80 | 3.8%3 W · 77 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 2,391$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 2,269$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948e…7c99backed Yes | 6c | 2,254$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…341dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,138$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa62c…804ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,132$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,983$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1328…ddc6backed Yes | 7c | 1,934$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,904$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…d3c5backed Yes | 3c | 1,847$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4743…34f8backed Yes | 3c | 1,643$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,563$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 1c | 1,488$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…9300backed Yes | 1c | 1,338$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aeb…9954backed Yes | 3c | 1,252$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d65…7af6backed Yes | 5c | 1,161$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,093$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea4…c4c5backed Yes | 5c | 1,082$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01e…6d79backed Yes | 2c | 1,072$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x070e…2bf8backed Yes | 3c | 1,052$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7a…acd7backed Yes | 1c | 1,039$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc0…0c92backed Yes | 3c | 1,009$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf17…a317backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a7…f193backed Yes | 10c | 981.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c0…6e63backed Yes | 5c | 868.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771c…37d1backed Yes | 3c | 840$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…4734backed Yes | 3c | 834.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca3e…40fabacked Yes | 2c | 801.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 2c | 771.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca8…3036backed Yes | 3c | 752.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 733.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9734…4357backed Yes | 2c | 730.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1293…32b5backed Yes | 2c | 712.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e5…37a9backed Yes | 3c | 636.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 2c | 627.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3a…a529backed Yes | 2c | 623.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d450backed Yes | 3c | 620$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…f073backed Yes | 3c | 620$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…096abacked Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4223…efe0backed Yes | 9c | 588.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…6f61backed Yes | 3c | 585.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe571…1472backed Yes | 4c | 582.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d33…4784backed Yes | 6c | 534.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…a70bbacked Yes | 8c | 531.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4175…c01fbacked Yes | 4c | 514.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…cd54backed Yes | 10c | 505.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc1…b891backed Yes | 6c | 501.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4765…3668backed Yes | 3c | 495.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d2…9f15backed Yes | 4c | 490.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb4…6816backed Yes | 4c | 442.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2694…415abacked Yes | 4c | 438.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde51…16aebacked Yes | 9c | 425.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f9…ab44backed Yes | 5c | 417.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0807…a321backed Yes | 3c | 338.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d0…f94cbacked Yes | 6c | 333.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde02…1402backed Yes | 3c | 305.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb8…424fbacked Yes | 6c | 297.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb729…5038backed Yes | 7c | 273.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b18…1a8bbacked Yes | 4c | 254.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes | 4c | 251.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…1f45backed Yes | 7c | 208.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3d…c31abacked Yes | 7c | 207.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed No | 55c | 92.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…2c5dbacked Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by at least 50%?this page
- Will André Ventura win the second round?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 0–10%?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 10–20%?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?Yes won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.