World Politics · resolved market
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7243caa069e3bae6e4036f83e84fc6993a8ced649a24f9d2410e3e67fd9dc67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $342,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $465,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $342,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 42,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…31abbacked Yes | 80c | 28,534$22,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,732.27 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…3895backed Yes | 71c | 8,677$6,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,501.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…afe7backed Yes | 59c | 8,494$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,494.16 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 54c | 6,317$3,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,933.77 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 52c | 5,580$2,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,705.78 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 41c | 5,241$2,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,162.89 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 49c | 4,368$2,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,247.7 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac9…200bbacked Yes | 54c | 4,038$2,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,868.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 43c | 3,701$1,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,119.13 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…2261backed Yes | 54c | 3,557$1,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,629.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa217…296ebacked Yes | 36c | 3,292$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,115.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7661…208abacked Yes | 51c | 2,413$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…e91ebacked Yes | 55c | 2,359$1,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaad…aa81backed Yes | 38c | 2,216$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,363.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…8e0ebacked Yes | 52c | 2,173$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 54c | 2,005$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.17 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed Yes | 43c | 2,005$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.67 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 34c | 1,756$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.87 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 46c | 1,681$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.54 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 57c | 1,463$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.81 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…765cbacked Yes | 78c | 1,422$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 57c | 1,350$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.49 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x473d…caabbacked Yes | 59c | 1,224$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 52c | 1,200$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c9…1b1abacked Yes | 68c | 1,115$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.68 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b43…df40backed Yes | 47c | 1,052$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…8a94backed Yes | 49c | 1,027$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.04 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 53c | 983.09$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.05 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 52c | 949.84$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.66 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d1…21c7backed Yes | 34c | 943.76$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.45 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6e…9988backed Yes | 16c | 896.85$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +348.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 35c | 722.98$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.4 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 716.53$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.72 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…7337backed Yes | 56c | 700.42$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.01 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…dabbbacked Yes | 47c | 692.06$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 57c | 691.24$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.84 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x924e…3fe8backed Yes | 36c | 625.64$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 49c | 600.19$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.7 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 31c | 600.02$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.54 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0986…971cbacked Yes | 51c | 589.35$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed Yes | 51c | 562.73$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.18 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…4045backed Yes | 44c | 555.79$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.19 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…3039backed Yes | 44c | 535.64$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf523…edb2backed Yes | 38c | 531.65$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 49c | 500.53$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.17 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 54c | 492.24$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.76 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…cd54backed Yes | 39c | 491.87$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.22 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 12c | 467.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 140 | 27.9%39 W · 101 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 50c | 444$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…4254backed Yes | 57c | 398.36$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…55a5backed Yes | 67c | 397.96$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1c26backed Yes | 75c | 375.14$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7825…3534backed Yes | 47c | 370$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…649cbacked Yes | 55c | 363.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.98 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 42c | 332.55$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.02 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…d409backed Yes | 60c | 330.63$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x211e…02cdbacked No | 65c | 318.57$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…f8dcbacked No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 9cpaid | +527.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228d…e064backed Yes | 35c | 294.48$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 35c | 279.97$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.7 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16ad…3ddcbacked Yes | 56c | 263.73$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873f…009abacked Yes | 38c | 262.74$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.34 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed Yes | 61c | 260.18$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.18 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0d…9b84backed Yes | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe04e…c0ddbacked No | 47c | 247.41$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f82cbacked No | 44c | 241$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.04 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 43c | 240$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.85 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9641…5385backed Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1baa…6eb3backed No | 9c | 229.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +315.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca3d…6737backed Yes | 79c | 227.02$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a0…03d0backed Yes | 46c | 219.39$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde02…1402backed Yes | 44c | 205.49$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b81…5384backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 58c | 190.92$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.59 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc68b…8c46backed Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ef…0cd8backed Yes | 70c | 185.18$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…f3b5backed Yes | 63c | 181.58$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47a…7418backed Yes | 57c | 175.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x171d…ab33backed Yes | 62c | 161.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…3d18backed No | 50c | 154.64$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc87…8dd0backed Yes | 52c | 152.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…c4e1backed Yes | 35c | 151.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 35c | 142.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.85 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 62c | 138.98$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.77 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8b…4accbacked Yes | 41c | 134.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…6683backed Yes | 53c | 130$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 38c | 127.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 125.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.66 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 52c | 115$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 12c | 112.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf293…e87abacked Yes | 56c | 106.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c43…0e4cbacked Yes | 49c | 104.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05cf…372fbacked Yes | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6186…e5c0backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?this page
- Will André Ventura win the second round?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 0–10%?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 10–20%?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by at least 50%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.