World Politics · resolved market
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 10–20%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62ca380f94e530adda5b5fb875a788a5354e979d896405066b010f5d3f7c6b7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $452,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $407,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $452,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc2d…6f93backed Yes | 6c | 84,567$5,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,435.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 4c | 77,197$3,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,390.15 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 0c | 17,172$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e26…5198backed Yes | 3c | 15,022$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked Yes | 6c | 10,021$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.19 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ea…3391backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b3…5984backed Yes | 3c | 9,999$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 2c | 6,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 5,917$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.18 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…2261backed Yes | 3c | 5,149$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa217…296ebacked Yes | 9c | 5,086$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1d…f61bbacked Yes | 5c | 4,132$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…0c73backed Yes | 4c | 4,020$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 3,893$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.35 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f67…642fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,615$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…f073backed Yes | 3c | 3,466$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.41 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…31abbacked Yes | 13c | 3,433$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.24 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaad…aa81backed Yes | 3c | 2,805$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,800$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 5c | 2,750$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.67 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,741$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.91 | 80 | 3.8%3 W · 77 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 4c | 2,518$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.76 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 2,480$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.96 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 2,478$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 2c | 2,400$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,350$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.74 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe65…452ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,315$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 2,264$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.53 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ec…ab04backed Yes | 4c | 2,212$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06cb…76f1backed Yes | 5c | 2,133$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…ec94backed Yes | 11c | 2,043$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,837$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.51 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70e5…32aabacked Yes | 3c | 1,745$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0991…e29abacked Yes | 4c | 1,542$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,532$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5b…3772backed Yes | 2c | 1,311$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 10c | 1,200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a0…03d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,158$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,112$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f82cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,096$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 10c | 1,065$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.55 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8e…6fb4backed Yes | 4c | 1,059$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…c860backed Yes | 10c | 1,043$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +202.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,038$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.61 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 4c | 1,006$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf063…4460backed Yes | 3c | 996.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Yes | 4c | 961.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4000…4c16backed Yes | 1c | 927.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…b2acbacked Yes | 3c | 855.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 815.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cb…76f1backed Yes | 3c | 752.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738d…4df6backed Yes | 4c | 746.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…e3c1backed Yes | 3c | 733.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc1…b891backed Yes | 4c | 625.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…9686backed Yes | 16c | 617.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6642…31cdbacked Yes | 4c | 583.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 5c | 580$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6249…4a3ebacked Yes | 3c | 572.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebe…a25ebacked Yes | 3c | 556.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8953…7f3abacked Yes | 2c | 551.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 2c | 550$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 2c | 514.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99de…acb4backed Yes | 3c | 501.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d1…21c7backed Yes | 9c | 500$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 3c | 499.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…3714backed Yes | 3c | 496.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 2c | 429.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…5887backed Yes | 12c | 421.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…1a2fbacked Yes | 5c | 409.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7a…acd7backed Yes | 3c | 404.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 7c | 399.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 8c | 389.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…263bbacked Yes | 13c | 385.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +390%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5af…3ea2backed Yes | 3c | 377.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4250…5c32backed Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2013…6d7dbacked Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 305.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ea…cc99backed Yes | 4c | 301.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b9…71f8backed Yes | 7c | 289.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d33…4784backed Yes | 11c | 262.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 257.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…cd54backed Yes | 9c | 233.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…6f61backed Yes | 7c | 210$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…50b5backed Yes | 9c | 193.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 185.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…5031backed Yes | 7c | 150.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…341dbacked Yes | 17c | 101.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b5…2a1bbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8b…4accbacked Yes | 11c | 89.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…6f30backed Yes | 13c | 84.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 10–20%?this page
- Will André Ventura win the second round?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 0–10%?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?Yes won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by at least 50%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.