World Politics · resolved market
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ef247b665498c7a9395714f0ab1d70ce872b3faf7b9060f681be542d3b380e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $597,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $484,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $597,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 0c | 82,819$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.91 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf19f…7c8bbacked No | 74c | 63,956$47,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,628.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afe…6d26backed Yes | 26c | 63,956$16,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,628.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 8c | 33,647$2,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,729.34 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1710…3344backed Yes | 20c | 18,489$3,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,628.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Yes | 36c | 10,232$3,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,723.64 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c9…1b1abacked No | 75c | 9,693$7,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,386.36 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 74c | 9,652$7,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,481.48 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 21c | 9,384$2,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,013.36 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 23c | 8,340$1,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,957.04 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 23c | 8,000$1,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,814.97 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…3895backed No | 66c | 7,414$4,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,551.54 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 6c | 6,817$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.85 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 15c | 6,204$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.26 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…e91ebacked No | 76c | 5,932$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 8c | 5,500$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 10c | 4,750$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.5 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked No | 77c | 4,578$3,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.77 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceab…dce7backed Yes | 11c | 4,233$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.05 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac9…200bbacked Yes | 22c | 4,066$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 22c | 4,000$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.56 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 19c | 3,296$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.11 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 22c | 3,111$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.42 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 3c | 3,040$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.16 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0e…c51dbacked Yes | 33c | 3,017$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked No | 62c | 3,000$1,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed No | 78c | 2,572$2,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.18 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 23c | 2,500$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -74%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 10c | 2,480$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.39 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 8c | 2,439$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.35 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 24c | 2,257$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.89 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 25c | 2,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…4f81backed No | 72c | 2,000$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +367.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed Yes | 10c | 1,828$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.16 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 22c | 1,680$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.4 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 74c | 1,624$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.38 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 79c | 1,545$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.36 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…8e0ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,366$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7661…208abacked No | 75c | 1,223$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b43…df40backed Yes | 22c | 1,133$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed No | 78c | 1,111$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.42 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 71c | 1,079$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.16 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…e3c1backed No | 76c | 1,053$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.63 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8934…ca30backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed Yes | 15c | 967.84$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.93 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 72c | 900.02$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.01 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc0…0c92backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…8b22backed Yes | 9c | 822.87$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 791.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.89 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 5c | 759.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes | 28c | 755.5$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.54 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 16c | 747.43$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.56 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 23c | 735.5$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.16 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4c…56bdbacked Yes | 13c | 713.84$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…cd54backed Yes | 16c | 706.31$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 22c | 685.98$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaad…aa81backed Yes | 8c | 605.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…4d70backed Yes | 19c | 600$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 22c | 599.97$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…f073backed Yes | 14c | 514.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 80c | 509.94$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.39 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d1…21c7backed Yes | 11c | 502.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe048…495ebacked No | 61c | 488.42$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c43…0e4cbacked Yes | 34c | 481.94$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 6c | 474$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 456.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked No | 76c | 426.93$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.46 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f82cbacked Yes | 22c | 420.93$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 12c | 406.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed No | 74c | 405.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.56 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a9…591fbacked No | 76c | 401.32$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 25c | 400.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…649cbacked Yes | 24c | 376.84$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7825…3534backed Yes | 27c | 365$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 15c | 331.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe067…c5cabacked Yes | 18c | 325.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 22c | 304.06$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1293…32b5backed Yes | 7c | 291.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1116…00d2backed Yes | 12c | 290.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…4254backed Yes | 28c | 281.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 8c | 275.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228d…e064backed Yes | 7c | 271.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 27c | 270$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 268.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 33c | 265.94$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.94 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 20c | 263.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c02…53c6backed No | 76c | 260$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…03efbacked Yes | 20c | 252.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 249.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…981ebacked Yes | 30c | 244.05$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 21c | 240$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 235.59$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed Yes | 40c | 235.11$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.2 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9910…f5f9backed Yes | 20c | 227.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…7337backed Yes | 27c | 227.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…b2acbacked No | 77c | 219.12$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 77c | 209.81$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%?this page
- Will André Ventura win the second round?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 0–10%?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 10–20%?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?Yes won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by at least 50%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.