World Politics · resolved market
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 0–10%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59db2423e9db299abf11c54d7ae878f965edda4e789ac897bf35a9c233958579
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $373,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $311,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $373,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc2d…6f93backed Yes | 3c | 125,321$3,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,651.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked Yes | 2c | 20,574$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.19 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e26…5198backed Yes | 2c | 20,284$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.82 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 1c | 16,090$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.55 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55b3…5984backed Yes | 1c | 6,815$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06cb…76f1backed Yes | 1c | 6,691$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…2261backed Yes | 1c | 5,183$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 26c | 5,000$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.8 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa217…296ebacked Yes | 5c | 4,928$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 4,784$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.67 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 3,866$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,743$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 3,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0344…68f7backed Yes | 5c | 3,129$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 67c | 3,103$2,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.12 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 2,861$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…f073backed Yes | 2c | 2,752$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ec…ab04backed Yes | 1c | 2,458$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 2,439$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 2,422$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,410$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 80 | 3.8%3 W · 77 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 2,065$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 2,049$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1328…ddc6backed Yes | 8c | 1,705$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e5…32aabacked Yes | 2c | 1,492$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8e…6fb4backed Yes | 1c | 1,421$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5b…3772backed Yes | 1c | 1,358$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…c860backed Yes | 9c | 1,122$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +202.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6642…31cdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,070$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,039$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 4c | 986.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 3c | 967.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6799…f700backed Yes | 1c | 914.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…9686backed Yes | 6c | 853.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 803.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 748.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…5031backed Yes | 1c | 699.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 544.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…5887backed Yes | 10c | 512$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 502.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…cd54backed Yes | 5c | 432.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbba8…f383backed Yes | 3c | 400.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d1…21c7backed Yes | 4c | 399.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d33…4784backed Yes | 9c | 334.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 6c | 255.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7713…5218backed Yes | 6c | 212.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 0–10%?this page
- Will André Ventura win the second round?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 10–20%?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?Yes won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by at least 50%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.