World Politics · resolved market
Will André Ventura win the second round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0a3c89dee5d6c60f0a6a0e906975649a7d6498f8eb86b985ec0b7ae4fab252d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $333,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $161,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $333,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeca3…1288backed Yes | 0c | 33,814$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd438…b6febacked Yes | 1c | 25,527$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9b…5245backed Yes | 1c | 14,886$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Yes | 1c | 14,286$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1131…0255backed Yes | 1c | 10,202$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b3…9777backed Yes | 1c | 10,033$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8173…6aa9backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e26…5198backed Yes | 1c | 8,907$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8723…97c9backed Yes | 4c | 7,999$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10c…002bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,403$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bc…b904backed Yes | 1c | 6,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5b…3772backed Yes | 1c | 6,067$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5000…7c15backed Yes | 1c | 5,497$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf03…bc6fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,731$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc059…1fcabacked Yes | 1c | 4,731$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 4,494$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb515…cd80backed Yes | 0c | 4,406$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…4254backed Yes | 1c | 3,969$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 3,647$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Yes | 1c | 3,576$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b4…3690backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9683…c4b2backed Yes | 1c | 2,722$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb874…489abacked Yes | 4c | 2,354$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,256$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,063$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 80 | 3.8%3 W · 77 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,994$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,889$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 1,775$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 1c | 1,737$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…704abacked Yes | 1c | 1,615$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,568$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…f073backed Yes | 1c | 1,498$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3928…77f6backed Yes | 1c | 1,479$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,455$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1328…ddc6backed Yes | 4c | 1,393$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…d75bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,254$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,243$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc3…3af0backed Yes | 5c | 1,235$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…a0dfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,234$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,015$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 905.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 5c | 884.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 834.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 2c | 631.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 3c | 564.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…0512backed Yes | 3c | 544.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…3f50backed Yes | 2c | 541.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…cd54backed Yes | 4c | 517.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d33…4784backed Yes | 4c | 447.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3d…c31abacked Yes | 3c | 320.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe0…3dafbacked Yes | 3c | 290.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd652…d5a4backed Yes | 5c | 193.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will André Ventura win the second round?this page
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 0–10%?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 10–20%?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?Yes won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by at least 50%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.