World Politics · resolved market
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cea84452e21e87128fd4a0983cdacaa4d3f4fbab9dbf98117a661e77d7616d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $577,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $494,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $577,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 227 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 20c | 67,231$13,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,222.86 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes | 4c | 37,284$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.05 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2d…6f93backed Yes | 20c | 28,921$5,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,761.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…f073backed Yes | 2c | 20,189$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.17 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked Yes | 12c | 20,097$2,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,455.7 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1710…3344backed Yes | 2c | 11,689$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8173…6aa9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5b…3772backed Yes | 3c | 8,624$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…31abbacked Yes | 31c | 8,269$2,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,586.81 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked No | 79c | 7,851$6,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,622.85 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 9c | 6,920$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.99 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…0c73backed Yes | 7c | 6,566$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…2261backed Yes | 21c | 6,500$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 24c | 6,158$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.68 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 21c | 5,397$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.14 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 4,622$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa217…296ebacked Yes | 33c | 4,135$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcac9…200bbacked Yes | 21c | 4,038$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 72c | 3,874$2,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.98 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaad…aa81backed Yes | 14c | 3,774$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f67…642fbacked Yes | 13c | 3,753$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…e91ebacked Yes | 24c | 3,505$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…3bd9backed Yes | 2c | 3,232$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 13c | 3,064$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.47 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 27c | 3,060$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.99 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…8e0ebacked Yes | 25c | 2,818$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473d…caabbacked Yes | 5c | 2,783$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 1c | 2,711$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 26c | 2,574$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.59 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 21c | 2,522$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.42 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed Yes | 22c | 2,500$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.98 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 20c | 2,218$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.94 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 19c | 2,160$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.89 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e26…5198backed Yes | 18c | 2,133$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…a896backed Yes | 3c | 2,057$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 6c | 2,009$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.17 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…4f81backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +367.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 21c | 1,859$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.39 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 20c | 1,680$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.82 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0991…e29abacked Yes | 8c | 1,619$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,607$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.1 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 2c | 1,517$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf523…edb2backed Yes | 31c | 1,500$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e15…b55abacked Yes | 3c | 1,338$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 75c | 1,319$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.22 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 20c | 1,200$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 1,188$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.85 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9768…6a39backed Yes | 6c | 1,143$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 16c | 1,127$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…c9c8backed Yes | 9c | 1,091$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1d…f61bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,086$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b43…df40backed Yes | 25c | 1,005$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…6b3abacked Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7661…208abacked Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…649cbacked Yes | 25c | 999.15$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 4c | 992.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde1c…fb66backed Yes | 21c | 947.62$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 16c | 886.87$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.03 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f82cbacked Yes | 18c | 854.51$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.97 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70e5…32aabacked Yes | 18c | 852$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Yes | 24c | 814.03$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ef…0cd8backed Yes | 18c | 766.95$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed No | 77c | 756.72$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.05 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 64c | 755.87$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.69 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed Yes | 17c | 754.52$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.38 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…4d70backed Yes | 20c | 749.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 721.92$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.18 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc1…b891backed Yes | 3c | 650$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…b2d5backed Yes | 20c | 647.72$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4000…4c16backed Yes | 3c | 585$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 582.81$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.39 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb2…8083backed Yes | 16c | 565.75$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x924e…3fe8backed Yes | 36c | 555.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…e3c1backed Yes | 19c | 527.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb45…1a6bbacked Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7f…a00dbacked Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 79c | 508.15$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.32 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3662…1846backed Yes | 7c | 500.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 20c | 500$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d1…21c7backed Yes | 32c | 499.99$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a0…03d0backed Yes | 23c | 494.63$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 7c | 486.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 482.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb766…1d83backed No | 68c | 469.29$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.29 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 35c | 466.1$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5820…5942backed Yes | 17c | 452.88$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7825…3534backed Yes | 23c | 436.25$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 68c | 436$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 421.94$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.74 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 32c | 415.85$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.09 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 11c | 400.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 28c | 399.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…cd54backed Yes | 39c | 385.38$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 76c | 371.27$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.15 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 29c | 335.16$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 15c | 329.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?this page
- Will André Ventura win the second round?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 0–10%?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 10–20%?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?Yes won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by at least 50%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.