TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,401,144
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,496,585

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,401,144 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 701 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6872…876fbacked No0c64,539$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.9980%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dff…ab91backed No17c61,206$10,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,148.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4615…b3debacked No18c58,280$10,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,229.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d3…dd75backed No20c57,626$11,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,689.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc2d…6f93backed No19c50,001$9,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,524.78714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+79.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c42,000$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes79c38,098$30,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,029.289334.4%32 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No17c37,411$6,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,223.6443243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6227…5da2backed No2c30,337$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.3920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4b0…9bc8backed No1c30,333$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x465e…40c9backed No12c28,436$3,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,319.85616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+110.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ca…224dbacked No19c24,550$4,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,75010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e93…42a0backed No10c23,349$2,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,244.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29d2…5fb4backed No5c20,181$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Yes80c18,007$14,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,635.8414240.8%58 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc610…5d03backed No1c17,715$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.5770%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bbe…fa75backed No20c17,420$3,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,412.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6664…dc84backed No17c16,839$2,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,86010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x771c…37d1backed No18c15,883$2,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,872.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35ef…aa84backed No29c15,764$4,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,560.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5b…0584backed No21c15,690$3,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,259.872114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-78.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d8…dc4abacked No21c14,912$3,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,087.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c30…1cffbacked No21c13,549$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,800.16333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-52.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb42…eda0backed No4c12,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa0…3895backed No7c11,791$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.061275%9 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16fa…6d0dbacked No8c11,511$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.42339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe65…452ebacked No19c10,395$1,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,95130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e26…5198backed No17c10,377$1,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,786.0460%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No0c10,221$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.896883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb84a…0a7ebacked No23c9,903$2,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,266.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc652…208abacked No15c9,594$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,485.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked No1c9,333$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631494.7%7 W · 142 L+0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f67…642fbacked No19c8,603$1,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,634.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8702…302cbacked No6c8,573$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes80c8,567$6,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,746.5824736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb9…4734backed No23c8,561$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4eca…b368backed No18c8,316$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,49920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4c…dbd5backed Yes78c8,205$6,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,769.811353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+62.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe70a…8084backed No0c8,010$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2573…0c73backed No19c8,004$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.62837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4064…b688backed No19c7,816$1,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,515.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a4…bd01backed No20c7,464$1,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5af…3ea2backed No18c7,326$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b1d…f61bbacked No16c6,523$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf78a…4a82backed No9c6,450$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb388…06d5backed No1c6,214$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.091136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cc4…b32abacked No18c6,195$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff58…42c2backed No17c6,180$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5218…6509backed No1c5,961$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50e1…2675backed No11c5,956$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked No9c5,915$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.056533.8%22 W · 43 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc06d…17babacked No10c5,800$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f1…42c0backed No16c5,728$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.2260%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f0c…f073backed No17c5,725$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.4175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-85.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4171…dc3ebacked No20c5,720$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bd…06d4backed No0c5,660$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0282…83aabacked No20c5,508$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67da…4db3backed No4c5,338$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed No9c5,333$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.254544.4%20 W · 25 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed No18c5,245$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9221127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7de4…8d8abacked No19c5,237$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a4b…a607backed No22c5,124$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…6b72backed No1c5,028$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes80c5,000$3,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0101421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-69.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes79c5,000$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0509053.3%48 W · 42 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1c4c…ab84backed No13c4,929$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5e…e91ebacked No19c4,925$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.851154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick42cpaid-8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d5b…2b86backed No16c4,681$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7db…6ea4backed No20c4,678$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes62c4,502$2,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,723.8230233.8%102 W · 200 L+19.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb45…1a6bbacked No18c4,444$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-62.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a5b…3772backed No17c4,221$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.8280%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x82d1…e53abacked No24c4,176$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes79c4,123$3,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.7913444.8%60 W · 74 L+17.1wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+13.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0c34…7e81backed No17c4,115$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ae…254abacked No17c4,038$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes79c4,000$3,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8407317.8%13 W · 60 L-7.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-56.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0e34…9cd8backed No15c3,815$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+370.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed No1c3,808$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.041526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-43.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb3b…a2b6backed No0c3,785$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.27380%0 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f14…7efbbacked No18c3,772$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c60…0deabacked No25c3,740$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f6…90b0backed No18c3,571$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes78c3,500$2,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.213334.6%46 W · 87 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b65…b928backed No18c3,427$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd129…f26fbacked No30c3,347$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e30…5629backed No17c3,305$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7779…99f5backed No18c3,302$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22cc…70bebacked No18c3,208$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b1…901fbacked No17c3,176$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ddb…730fbacked No18c3,043$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabbd…f261backed No15c3,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44060%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x62de…e70bbacked No19c2,965$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked No17c2,907$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No7c2,887$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.2513139.7%52 W · 79 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe331…2ed4backed No18c2,884$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5902…2cafbacked No18c2,778$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4000…4c16backed No16c2,767$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.7960%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa930…3b95backed No4c2,726$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba86…6a61backed No1c2,716$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.