TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 12-18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$925,980
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$862,485

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $925,980 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 255 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd769…f90cbacked No78c99,604$77,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,317.6719535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0154…15a8backed Yes26c43,750$11,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,474.843953.8%21 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.16per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa793…1776backed Yes14c30,034$4,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,076.661910.5%2 W · 17 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick31cpaid-83.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes50c24,600$12,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,388.7487828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes23c24,253$5,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,573.0158126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed No46c14,806$6,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,043.4117231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f28…1ceebacked Yes1c13,100$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.3110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes36c12,037$4,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,278.3463835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bcf…5ee7backed No78c10,640$8,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,342.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-35.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1bb6…2454backed Yes47c10,638$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No5c10,066$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,543.912025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes31c9,411$2,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,899.3537745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes17c8,793$1,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.283542.9%15 W · 20 L+6.4wins+0.18per pick24cpaid+109.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c7,286$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.611,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes32c7,180$2,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,262.9422550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes0c7,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2216729.3%49 W · 118 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76c8…e383backed Yes1c6,276$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.76904.4%4 W · 86 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Yes13c5,879$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.3426274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xaf23…3f2ebacked No32c5,800$1,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,962.68560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+48.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Yes27c5,633$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5004920.4%10 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed No33c5,250$1,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,543.2828021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2507123.9%17 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No55c4,757$2,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,122.597163.4%45 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No30c4,614$1,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,243.018625.6%22 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e4f…7f5bbacked No61c4,500$2,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,769.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c9…41b5backed No37c4,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,519.934450%22 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe14b…1ad3backed No55c3,973$2,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,771.343633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0b6…4c95backed Yes2c3,911$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.56633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-41.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Yes24c3,900$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+205.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd648…2badbacked Yes2c3,647$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7070%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa894…7607backed Yes10c3,633$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3654112.2%5 W · 36 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-51%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No33c3,476$1,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,344.7164812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x47b0…3b60backed Yes14c3,450$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4852313%3 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick16cpaid+26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes32c3,248$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.6940643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdef6…f63abacked No65c3,081$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.71666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e08…2ce9backed No71c3,000$2,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8604100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c2,960$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.716785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes1c2,848$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.623411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe66a…a0a0backed Yes7c2,774$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.73933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f53…b164backed Yes4c2,642$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed Yes19c2,562$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.84047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c6b4backed Yes16c2,535$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.094413.6%6 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-43.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed No41c2,472$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,454.982828.6%8 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ca…2fbabacked Yes3c2,453$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeaa…fa16backed Yes67c2,300$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,535520%1 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.43per pick63cpaid-71.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa142…375abacked No31c2,277$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,565.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-34.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed Yes15c2,200$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3221127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-50.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb60e…3574backed Yes38c2,188$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.124658.7%27 W · 19 L+5.3wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+35.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe75e…da3cbacked Yes58c2,100$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,21810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x615e…5295backed Yes1c2,069$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.812270.9%2 W · 225 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3131…7b3bbacked Yes1c2,050$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fb4…94e3backed Yes3c2,001$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes80c2,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.40per pick56cpaid-78.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf6dc…246ebacked No63c1,850$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68413770.1%96 W · 41 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes10c1,818$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.353324.2%8 W · 25 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-50.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3701…8b4bbacked Yes71c1,793$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,273.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b99…1cd7backed Yes19c1,784$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.881010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70ed…10b4backed Yes13c1,777$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.746625.8%17 W · 49 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked Yes5c1,507$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.592317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes7c1,496$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105117.6%9 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc061…c8d2backed Yes1c1,429$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x176e…2c28backed Yes1c1,334$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x989c…69f4backed No72c1,217$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.017330.1%22 W · 51 L-18.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-54.8%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes21c1,202$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.653910.3%4 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid+155.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad95…0724backed Yes9c1,049$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e15…7e90backed Yes1c1,014$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes7c1,005$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.422125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc95d…7984backed Yes1c1,001$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd35…2b89backed Yes18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f64…792bbacked Yes2c944.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-86.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed No71c919.61$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.6121651.4%111 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbb…151ebacked Yes2c877.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3761…bb47backed Yes8c844.78$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706615.2%10 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+27.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x216e…9e81backed Yes6c839.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b62…61f2backed Yes2c807.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad09…23c7backed Yes70c800$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15e2…2cc1backed Yes4c789.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.99175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes21c786.72$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.55598.5%5 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2a9…10fdbacked Yes3c783$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7218…4a76backed Yes26c754.72$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb611…5ab1backed Yes7c741.07$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1247…9ce9backed No80c699.89$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.964062.5%25 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked No12c678.78$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.942015%3 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fdd…d973backed Yes4c658.56$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b9…de55backed Yes52c600$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.912321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3afa…97dcbacked Yes8c592.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2615…c16dbacked No72c551.89$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.894242.9%18 W · 24 L-8.8wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-39.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes8c549.07$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.33998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1f7…c300backed No19c526.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.321050%5 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+59.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No13c525$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4552417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes5c522.87$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.65411.1%6 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick4cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7812…0924backed Yes10c513.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e2…bd11backed No20c501.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+150.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e98…d70ebacked No79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a84…0e54backed Yes10c499.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3fc…c8a5backed Yes72c489.99$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.3450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes4c485.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.062999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fb7…cbb7backed Yes6c482.53$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes5c480.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe87d…8cafbacked No20c459.31$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.852759.3%16 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+38.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.