Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 12-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59dd2c76298cbc441c24720bc5d70fc66ed4ad73dab010876d3576e52325a792
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 37c | 22,086$8,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,942.98 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c1…2e70backed No | 42c | 14,229$6,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,033.13 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…8af2backed No | 61c | 11,698$7,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,135.78 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 41c | 9,027$3,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,345.58 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…15a8backed Yes | 51c | 8,367$4,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,087.91 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 39c | 3,888$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.26 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 41c | 3,023$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,783.47 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 34c | 1,697$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.61 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed No | 62c | 1,561$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.13 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…9ce9backed No | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 67c | 1,200$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad09…23c7backed Yes | 65c | 950$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes | 60c | 915$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 31c | 900$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca15…f1b3backed No | 38c | 894.61$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…1e2ebacked No | 69c | 600$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa765…ec70backed Yes | 37c | 600$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 70c | 505.56$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.73 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5f…ef39backed Yes | 51c | 504.96$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed No | 69c | 434.98$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 62c | 401.37$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes | 26c | 384.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.1 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 34c | 378.02$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.62 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5869…071dbacked No | 54c | 341$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed No | 74c | 301.06$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.24 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ca…a461backed Yes | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…7607backed Yes | 33c | 266.67$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.67 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1303…20cdbacked No | 80c | 255.07$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f0…8670backed No | 76c | 232.98$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.77 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…9e8abacked Yes | 27c | 232.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.08 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…0e2dbacked No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c76…c8d5backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0688…7a12backed No | 37c | 170$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c6b4backed Yes | 26c | 160$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc91…b906backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 56c | 139.64$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.36 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 71c | 138.84$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.07 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…b90fbacked Yes | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 104$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.04 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…93c7backed No | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 50c | 87.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf21e…d0cabacked No | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0237…e7b2backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c1…b3a0backed Yes | 53c | 78.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x910d…c8babacked No | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd89…8591backed No | 73c | 65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…e145backed No | 73c | 63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed Yes | 40c | 52.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 14cpaid | +131%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 35c | 49.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9c…07f6backed Yes | 42c | 47.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +147.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed No | 53c | 37.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b5…3b75backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x654e…a835backed No | 39c | 32.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…be7abacked Yes | 47c | 30.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked No | 71c | 24.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96bd…b290backed No | 73c | 24.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…3f3dbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ef…f738backed No | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab0…8796backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 12-18?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 12-18?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.