Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 12-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b0d7337f6797a85677070909e299665eb0c61a41165ef5a330da29764381ad9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 26c | 13,241$3,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,501.74 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 55c | 11,673$6,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,294.7 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…15a8backed Yes | 72c | 4,482$3,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.46 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 66c | 3,496$2,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.15 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd57e…ecf2backed No | 9c | 3,467$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c1…2e70backed No | 20c | 3,023$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.42 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380f…8229backed No | 46c | 2,837$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 69c | 2,687$1,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.39 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 27c | 2,585$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.65 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 51c | 1,601$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.17 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed No | 31c | 969.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 900$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 700$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 23c | 597.53$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.32 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes | 62c | 546.77$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.77 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x010b…81dcbacked No | 29c | 530$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.8 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87d…8cafbacked No | 35c | 520.16$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 8c | 400$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed No | 27c | 398.57$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.05 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…1550backed No | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 71c | 326.97$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.32 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff5…50eabacked No | 15c | 267.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0688…7a12backed No | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked No | 42c | 235.71$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…da86backed No | 46c | 217.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910d…c8babacked No | 9c | 200.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…9ce9backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed No | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…93c7backed No | 28c | 195.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…5ce5backed Yes | 57c | 139.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.61 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +222.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 24c | 119.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 54c | 98.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 64c | 89.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…0830backed No | 57c | 57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed Yes | 76c | 51.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 14cpaid | +131%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0237…e7b2backed No | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 65c | 44.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 44c | 44.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a8…c628backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3346…1cf7backed No | 42c | 38.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c1…b3a0backed Yes | 74c | 35.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6d…cbcbbacked No | 48c | 35.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…1068backed Yes | 44c | 35.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f98…e52fbacked No | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1364…c10cbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e6…2d79backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Yes | 61c | 20.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b67…e7b5backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7018…4697backed Yes | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8f…fd97backed Yes | 61c | 17.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Yes | 67c | 16.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…be7abacked Yes | 70c | 15.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 12-18?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 12-18?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.