Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 12-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fd96997ceae11744ab384b7f54c13ccb9f43cc294f09870edb086e32e6cf70e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $303,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $228,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $303,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcaf4…a4debacked Yes | 0c | 17,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 16,650$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 80 | 0%0 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 71 | 0%0 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 4c | 12,083$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.79 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 0c | 11,865$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…f756backed Yes | 8c | 11,207$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.94 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 12cpaid | +349.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec11…d8f1backed Yes | 2c | 10,596$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…792bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40c…b675backed Yes | 0c | 8,684$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 5c | 6,772$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.74 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 4,474$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.01 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…15a8backed Yes | 2c | 3,469$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.67 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x70a4…eff2backed Yes | 6c | 3,250$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.02 | 87 | 13.8%12 W · 75 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…ff34backed Yes | 5c | 2,124$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,124$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.74 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,884$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…4cf0backed Yes | 11c | 1,700$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,645$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.1 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 10c | 1,643$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.49 | 90 | 4.4%4 W · 86 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,559$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf315…e097backed Yes | 4c | 1,508$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 5c | 1,408$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…9491backed Yes | 2c | 1,332$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…70a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,316$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 4c | 1,196$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc586…0577backed Yes | 6c | 1,005$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 10c | 899.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19dd…8f24backed Yes | 11c | 893.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…178dbacked Yes | 11c | 779.52$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0b…0445backed Yes | 3c | 697.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0a…8af7backed Yes | 4c | 690.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfed…61b5backed Yes | 10c | 525.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 459.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 423.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…36efbacked Yes | 4c | 380$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24f0…92bcbacked Yes | 3c | 346.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes | 4c | 318.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…ba6dbacked Yes | 4c | 278$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7ba9backed Yes | 8c | 244.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…52d7backed Yes | 5c | 240.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…1e6dbacked Yes | 6c | 224.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d33…065cbacked Yes | 8c | 204.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1882…6974backed Yes | 7c | 176.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 10c | 145.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x511b…b372backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec53…d7e2backed Yes | 10c | 96.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 12-18?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 12-18?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 12-18?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.