TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,840,951
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,805,532

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,840,951 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 658 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe7b…3303backed No3c106,799$3,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,331.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f70…bf5abacked No2c48,591$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…2bbbbacked No1c40,599$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e37…7e43backed No3c35,285$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,01710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked No17c34,777$5,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,781.154425%11 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f1e…ccb0backed No1c26,945$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d1b…1137backed No0c25,740$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f69…78e2backed No2c23,866$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9771…5a0abacked No7c21,448$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d90…1e8bbacked No1c20,604$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a04…3b5fbacked No1c17,933$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdea…a777backed No2c16,605$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed No3c14,442$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.8214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-89.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c14,070$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.3749511.5%57 W · 438 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed No7c13,709$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe71a…66ebbacked No24c13,700$3,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,32510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c4c…8419backed Yes76c13,700$10,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe99b…0443backed No19c13,167$2,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,464.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83fb…f0f9backed No1c12,213$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x989f…5e7fbacked No6c12,032$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No11c11,506$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,246.827521.3%16 W · 59 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e33…8c8fbacked No4c11,199$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No19c11,174$2,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,114.231020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-44.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No14c11,083$1,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530.81233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e4a…0b5cbacked No2c10,990$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No0c10,351$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.713920.5%8 W · 31 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick12cpaid+34.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No23c10,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30015150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef1f…272ebacked No2c9,889$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3911…6689backed No21c9,887$2,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,075.53333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x562b…a3cbbacked No4c9,851$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4173…ba3fbacked No9c8,991$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d9d…a039backed No3c8,859$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No14c7,507$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes78c7,386$5,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,623.781060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes78c7,313$5,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,586.6510740.2%43 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked No12c7,151$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb1…22f0backed No1c6,687$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1e6…962abacked No1c6,654$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb351…4e7bbacked No0c6,462$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5652…00c9backed Yes77c6,322$4,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,429.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No13c6,272$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.712114.3%3 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-69.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked No1c6,249$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.92425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-68.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b91…e572backed No18c5,992$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c4f…0f33backed No14c5,916$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.55per pick12cpaid+501%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x367e…4241backed No4c5,813$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7476…f26abacked No16c5,664$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97e…24ffbacked No5c5,613$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257450%2 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+444.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfa6…4eb6backed No8c5,602$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No10c5,587$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.32633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ed…cfc6backed No1c5,587$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x178e…27e8backed No7c5,433$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b42…01e1backed No9c5,346$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ed…076ebacked No3c5,133$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51d7…238cbacked No30c5,119$1,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,512.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes76c5,001$3,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,220.042729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x210e…b324backed No7c4,935$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f3c…8980backed No6c4,814$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes74c4,782$3,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,237.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No17c4,730$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.513317.3%23 W · 110 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7217…fdbdbacked No14c4,645$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…7cb7backed No1c4,490$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce95…034dbacked No4c4,433$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes78c4,374$3,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.77333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-57.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc07a…3fb0backed No2c4,350$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff05…fad7backed No1c4,337$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd28a…fc48backed No9c4,298$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No11c4,074$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3060…54babacked No6c4,003$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc832…ed2bbacked No3c3,998$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2b0…b26bbacked Yes79c3,787$3,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7c6…1434backed No8c3,750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa757…d062backed No6c3,607$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32bc…1dabbacked No6c3,580$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked No6c3,572$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.7150%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9155…de7cbacked No15c3,550$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No11c3,520$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.156322.2%14 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-38.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1057…9ea5backed No18c3,500$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cb4…1561backed No1c3,373$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d44…966fbacked No63c3,363$2,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,105.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x703c…ae21backed No1c3,330$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8b…e194backed No2c3,176$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36de…9d67backed No9c3,151$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f0c…f073backed No0c3,136$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19de…442fbacked No2c3,115$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5940%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b94…473ebacked No8c3,057$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca5…e6c9backed No18c3,027$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x418f…44fabacked No66c3,000$1,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,967.7530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb88a…b3f9backed No3c3,000$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fe9…8308backed No22c3,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf11…38a4backed No5c2,987$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes38c2,921$1,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,817.36650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked Yes72c2,887$2,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.642630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1887…92c1backed No1c2,885$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1690…a882backed No1c2,857$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes78c2,857$2,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.461637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-47.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9a…0793backed No2c2,782$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes47c2,775$1,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,471.622138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x398b…be1fbacked No18c2,741$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…9717backed No13c2,654$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x55c4…4b34backed No11c2,644$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.87812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.