TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xff05…fad7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
91
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 51 out of 100; worst Middle East at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST293.4%1 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-86.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$43.14
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.58
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$11.69
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10.1
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$11.27
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$14.45
Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.85
Bill Clinton charged by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.5
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$10.54
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than 200k employees in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$21.62
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$39.77
Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.84
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.22
Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.34
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$22.92
Will Stephen Colbert be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$13.63
Will Chuck Schumer be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$14.06
Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$12.88
Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$11.13
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$12.16
Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for less than 2 seconds on November 21 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$13.88
Will the Government shutdown end by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$11.08
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$10.25
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on November 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$14.85
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.27
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT190%0 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.34
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$47.51
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$13.2
Will Trump and Netanyahu only be photographed together by February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$29.99
Will Trump say "Middle East" during meeting with Netanyahu?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$11.15
Will Trump say "Goy" or "Goyim" during meeting with Netanyahu?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$11.27
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$32.65
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$10.7
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$15.16
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$28.98
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$29.16
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$45.62
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$22.13
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$34.38
Will the US strike Syria next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$47.72
Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 6–10 seconds?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$23.59
Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$18.85
Will Donald Trump say "Turkey" or "Erdogan" during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$65.42
Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$14.83
All 19 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.74
U.S. forces seize another oil ship by January 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$10.68
Will Trump and Machado not shake hands?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$40.14
Machado wears a dress or skirt during next Trump meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$12.26
Will Trump meet with Machado by January 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$23.44
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$50.12
Will Trump say "Oil" 15+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$12.5
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$15.07
Will Donald Trump say "communist" or "communism" at least three times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$11.15
Will Donald Trump say "dictator" at least three times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$11.52
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.9
Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$16.99
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.21
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit and tie at the World Economic Forum?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$39.55
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.54
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$42.63
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.09
Nothing Ever Happens: Military Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.84
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last 2–6 seconds?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$15.08
Will Donald Trump say "Mar-a-Lago" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$15.81
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$10.31
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$14.3
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.49
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.39
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.68
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.44
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$26.02
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$12.12
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$21.99
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 8 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$11.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Napoli finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$14.53
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.