Us Politics · resolved market
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f8f28bade4519d43d4ccd7e11311e71998ec535887c384422cf989c33891cfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $285,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $258,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $285,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77a4…c84fbacked No | 8c | 16,573$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.28 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed No | 10c | 14,851$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.14 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb59b…a8e0backed No | 12c | 13,065$1,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,551.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked No | 15c | 11,817$1,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,793.79 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 9c | 6,750$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.97 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 5,670$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.69 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed No | 11c | 5,487$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.88 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…6c5bbacked No | 7c | 5,094$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 1c | 4,307$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x104f…6b02backed No | 14c | 3,769$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked No | 14c | 3,713$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.94 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…9e19backed No | 6c | 3,648$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.69 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 22cpaid | +171.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 15c | 3,248$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.24 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f6…aa5dbacked No | 10c | 2,914$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 16c | 2,578$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.6 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…ba1cbacked No | 9c | 2,207$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…340cbacked No | 10c | 1,871$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.96 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 8c | 1,755$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.43 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 1c | 1,632$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55c4…4b34backed No | 14c | 1,542$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7eb…009cbacked No | 10c | 1,421$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +150.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…7c68backed No | 8c | 1,211$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e2…988ebacked No | 4c | 1,187$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed No | 17c | 1,180$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.72 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 5c | 1,139$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked No | 5c | 1,122$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…b70dbacked No | 1c | 1,042$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | +155.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4499…d102backed No | 10c | 986.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd608…3821backed No | 19c | 773.11$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc270…dfdebacked No | 17c | 765.33$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked No | 15c | 751.74$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.63 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 5c | 619.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd9…d502backed No | 18c | 547.75$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a9…a313backed No | 7c | 522.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked No | 11c | 457.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc334…0e88backed No | 18c | 440.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 9c | 411$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefab…b927backed No | 7c | 326.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31eb…3616backed No | 5c | 318.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dda…e56abacked No | 7c | 317.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 7c | 288.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86f4…9a09backed No | 12c | 273.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949a…721cbacked No | 8c | 266.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…9d39backed No | 9c | 262.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffe…b69dbacked No | 19c | 259.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54df…8823backed No | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32db…fcdcbacked No | 18c | 249.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 7c | 237.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed No | 9c | 231.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ab…23cbbacked No | 14c | 211.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked No | 16c | 200.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…f329backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed55…5022backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f2…ec42backed No | 9c | 175.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951d…f79fbacked No | 14c | 173.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…40e2backed No | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…9717backed No | 13c | 135.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 18c | 120.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…1e75backed No | 18c | 113.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…f641backed No | 20c | 104.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…b53dbacked No | 17c | 100.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4942…39cbbacked No | 16c | 100.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x887f…db10backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2704…2427backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0b…64dabacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce4c…436cbacked No | 17c | 98.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd56b…910bbacked No | 13c | 80.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…f5dabacked No | 18c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will House and Senate pass funding bill by November 30?this page
- Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 15?No won
- Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 1?No won
- Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 2?No won
- Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 31?No won
- Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 5?No won
- Will House and Senate pass funding bill by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.