TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$279,772
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$231,038

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $279,772 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes0c43,326$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.651007%7 W · 93 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes9c30,409$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.6419236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No72c13,333$9,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,775.87458.1%43 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes4c12,733$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.8933313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce92…3dfbbacked Yes0c7,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-56.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes39c6,348$2,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,484.7521634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57e0…ff91backed Yes0c6,031$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed Yes1c5,420$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.293721.6%8 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes55c5,094$2,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,784.722334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a5d…185dbacked Yes52c3,194$1,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,666.872650%13 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc215…aa47backed Yes1c3,124$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e84…ef69backed Yes0c3,027$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.13296.9%2 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-78.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes4c2,847$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7918425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes21c2,787$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.8799629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,718$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.181,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d79…e33cbacked Yes1c2,046$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed No49c1,858$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+162.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes18c1,831$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.312123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-45.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b0e…f132backed Yes1c1,751$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x205e…1925backed No69c1,725$1,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1f3…c9febacked Yes1c1,581$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee4f…82debacked Yes28c1,294$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c7d…6cc4backed No68c1,274$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.06988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed No68c1,231$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.122646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes4c1,229$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.012544%11 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f57…bc71backed Yes6c1,161$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fec…c965backed Yes13c1,149$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.993046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes18c1,110$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.735519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed No38c1,000$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6259549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe781…5e52backed No38c1,000$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6253548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3704955.1%27 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b80…109cbacked Yes4c932.07$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0daa…debcbacked Yes5c869.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes32c803.11$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.4456733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes3c763.24$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.385614.3%8 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes6c719.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9717633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f8d…e200backed No73c700$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick54cpaid+36%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0748…ba12backed Yes5c616.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf368…873abacked No74c599.99$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No71c575.6$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.9331840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd99f…4400backed Yes55c510.63$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d47…2aa9backed Yes27c500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4499…d102backed No30c498.51$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+66.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes10c447.56$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5696319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xabac…6c97backed Yes2c433.37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0dc…43a4backed No45c431.3$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6471…457abacked No45c410$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.35875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked Yes34c405.69$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.548749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26ff…8ed7backed No74c405.41$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd768…38f7backed Yes12c400$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcb4…b811backed No49c388.95$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.751163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick38cpaid+92.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d89…340cbacked No47c381.31$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.622536%9 W · 16 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes29c342.53$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5113943.2%60 W · 79 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes25c318.97$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.575437%20 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa443…2247backed Yes3c312.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52f6…a3f4backed No61c301.4$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.23100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes7c295.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.37119.7%14 W · 57 L-8.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xab95…c8cfbacked No73c286.96$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.851127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d30…b797backed Yes7c277.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f1…ec06backed No77c275.23$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.834100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d83…50cebacked Yes48c240$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.81520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-64.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4d8…1075backed Yes8c234.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31eb…3616backed Yes57c224.15$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.86850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1c9b…b444backed No44c221.76$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.51758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+30.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No52c220$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.62055%11 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed No50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.4110338.8%40 W · 63 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a94…a136backed No74c200$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.01425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-66.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes28c198.08$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.055832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ffe…b69dbacked No76c196.04$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.322733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes13c183.38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6414935.6%53 W · 96 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb984…e881backed Yes55c181.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick62cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd02e…4cf2backed No53c179.79$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.141861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9dd…af57backed No63c158.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x88f1…5c9dbacked No74c150$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x027c…60f2backed Yes69c145.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f2c…35bbbacked Yes34c140$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0797…cef4backed No66c140$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb04e…c9d5backed Yes8c139.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-25.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes14c136.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8733627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c0…2ba7backed No74c135.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.311855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e73…e5c1backed Yes75c133.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x451b…2b0abacked Yes38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98e0…bf01backed No68c130.95$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.641060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd196…36bfbacked Yes16c122.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes20c122.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4324035.4%85 W · 155 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0236…0869backed Yes17c114.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aac…dfadbacked No58c112.56$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.396549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0032…bbb1backed No73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff62…1148backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8420…6183backed No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377147.9%34 W · 37 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6e0…cee7backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8def…196fbacked No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8113046.9%61 W · 69 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1ff7…87a4backed No52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fdf…82f0backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa313…9c76backed Yes33c99.54$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d22…54f4backed No74c98.47$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked No25c91.39$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.5416643.4%72 W · 94 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No70c90.98$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2714460.4%87 W · 57 L+16.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaa9e…08cbbacked Yes26c86.63$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.