Serie A · resolved market
Will Napoli finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8e2f123b6001c0f63d2bafa4f654acd1500a413b2e12110686b90c393c49da0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed No | 1c | 7,519$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 25cpaid | +194.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked No | 32c | 6,934$2,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,184.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…b47ebacked No | 7c | 6,934$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 9c | 5,389$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 7c | 4,642$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.53 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbe…a030backed No | 9c | 3,131$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 2,964$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.64 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 9c | 2,123$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.72 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 1c | 1,316$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1550…f3a8backed No | 2c | 1,100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 7c | 953.51$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +93%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81b1…2f4cbacked No | 2c | 890$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked No | 10c | 803.79$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +110%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…c40dbacked No | 5c | 705.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed No | 11c | 696.44$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 4c | 603.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852f…3aaebacked No | 50c | 550$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 4c | 517.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 4c | 481$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +93%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 4c | 459.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 16c | 431.41$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 8c | 340.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 10c | 302.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked No | 20c | 290.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 12c | 244.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 37cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x643b…cd1cbacked No | 11c | 235$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1560…1279backed No | 8c | 231.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 7c | 228.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 12c | 190.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f9…b8e6backed No | 18c | 167.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…c57fbacked No | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0914…e4ebbacked No | 9c | 136.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 10c | 125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 13c | 110.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed Yes | 18c | 108$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.26 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +4.3wins | +0.61per pick | 24cpaid | +250.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…95c4backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…304ebacked No | 17c | 67.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e63…1a5ebacked No | 18c | 62.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd99a…625fbacked No | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +195.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 30c | 41.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Napoli finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?this page
- Will AC Milan finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?No won
- Will Atalanta finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?No won
- Will Como finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?Yes won
- Will Fiorentina finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?No won
- Will Inter finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?Yes won
- Will Juventus finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?No won
- Will Lazio finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?No won
- Will Roma finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?Yes won
- Will Sassuolo finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?No won
- Will US Cremonese finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?No won
- Will Udinese finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.