Us Politics · resolved market
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcab7ba4a9133cfd407d7e73e5757e5abbace413b59421527a31113406c97815c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $202,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $150,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 77c | 39,158$30,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,012.42 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…025ebacked Yes | 31c | 10,907$3,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,343.61 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 4c | 9,826$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.64 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed Yes | 8c | 5,050$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.96 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 31c | 4,131$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.61 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +38%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6019…01afbacked Yes | 1c | 4,078$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 3,992$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Yes | 32c | 3,628$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.96 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 17c | 3,272$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.17 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1df…7d7ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,221$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d55…5ea3backed Yes | 30c | 3,000$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked No | 70c | 3,000$2,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.16 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6c…4891backed Yes | 39c | 2,953$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 65c | 2,688$1,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.85 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1111…5e59backed Yes | 4c | 2,651$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5708…1d51backed Yes | 3c | 2,444$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 31c | 2,368$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.98 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1825…9947backed Yes | 1c | 2,139$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf39…2e79backed Yes | 12c | 1,849$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 19c | 1,838$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…c0eebacked Yes | 7c | 1,722$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,657$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed Yes | 1c | 1,269$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,253$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…e0e5backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c2…aa15backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 3c | 1,207$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf10…557ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,086$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 21c | 1,080$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.22 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1634…7befbacked Yes | 1c | 1,008$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 910.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be6…90f3backed Yes | 8c | 901.87$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 854.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Yes | 10c | 850$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b37…6962backed No | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe646…c07cbacked Yes | 2c | 709.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60d…9ec9backed Yes | 30c | 666.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes | 39c | 641.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 635.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 32c | 621.67$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.03 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5324…5220backed Yes | 3c | 617.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878b…171ebacked Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9143…9235backed Yes | 18c | 543.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…576abacked Yes | 23c | 520$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 33c | 516.58$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.85 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…4382backed Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7221…df5ebacked No | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 29c | 488.05$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.54 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc78…fcc8backed Yes | 31c | 445.08$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 70c | 444$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 63c | 443.66$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.05 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 44c | 430$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.8 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes | 3c | 422.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad4d…eb1ebacked Yes | 8c | 386$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 363.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f2…f165backed Yes | 4c | 338.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffdb…411dbacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11f…0fe8backed Yes | 6c | 322.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c87…f49ebacked No | 70c | 317.54$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 5c | 317.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x580e…a1c4backed Yes | 8c | 310$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed No | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa405…fe9dbacked Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…64c4backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 52cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed Yes | 7c | 259.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 69c | 250$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ef…899abacked Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…421dbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…c632backed Yes | 31c | 193.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc801…5789backed Yes | 31c | 193.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 14c | 185.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…d01ebacked Yes | 17c | 164$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…56acbacked Yes | 13c | 159.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9385…afa7backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…2903backed Yes | 8c | 147.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x637e…8a05backed Yes | 21c | 140$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…b6b5backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 9c | 129.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -8.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…b14bbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…6ca2backed Yes | 31c | 107.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +158.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbf…12aabacked Yes | 14c | 104.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…7e46backed Yes | 14c | 104.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bb…ff01backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2711…5464backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da5…79eebacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0696…d56abacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7134…8febbacked Yes | 12c | 95.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 14c | 81.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -9.8wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa075…7d2bbacked Yes | 39c | 78.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.