TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf91f…6ca2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
59
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 60 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2025, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 23–30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$22.56
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT+53.3%+$106.58
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.68
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT+270.4%+$29.2
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT+62.2%+$17.79
All 12 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1080%8 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+158.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$33.5
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$472Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$472
Elon out of Trump administration before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$19.88
US-China trade deal before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+98%+$171.44
Will Trump increase tariffs on Mexico before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT+1,234.4%+$123.44
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+50.3%+$156
Will TikTok be banned again before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$331Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+99.2%+$328.34
TikTok sale announced before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,466Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+55.6%+$815.94
Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on China before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT+45.4%+$63.59
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+70.8%+$14.21
All 10 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+78.7%+$164.04
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$127.05
Zelenskyy impeached before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$126.43
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$255Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+46.4%+$118.37
US lifts Russia sanctions before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$139
Will Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.47
Trump cuts Ukraine aid before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST+138.1%+$44.9
Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+351.1%+$175.54
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+17.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-81.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+75%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2025, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+108.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+78%+$76.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok sale announced before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+64.9%+$125.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$86
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.