Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcab5f3d5a78a1afd3e96026b02ba50576e095bd9a2f94ca0b3f770506488cc80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $276,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $276,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 2c | 12,766$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.14 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 9,042$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 2c | 7,123$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.63 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,155$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.19 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 1c | 5,321$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e3…cb8abacked Yes | 2c | 4,832$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.81 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…2d35backed Yes | 25c | 4,072$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 20c | 4,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.99 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…114bbacked Yes | 4c | 3,488$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 6c | 3,450$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.31 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Yes | 1c | 3,376$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6b…fdbbbacked Yes | 6c | 3,350$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 79c | 2,845$2,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.34 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,797$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…c293backed Yes | 3c | 2,627$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 5c | 2,600$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c0…c87cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,566$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 1c | 2,531$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 20c | 2,400$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.73 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 77c | 2,259$1,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.35 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…2370backed Yes | 2c | 2,015$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,015$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e8…0819backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 11cpaid | +355.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 21c | 2,000$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.71 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 1,990$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf11d…2806backed Yes | 5c | 1,912$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 2c | 1,721$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 78c | 1,432$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.27 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed No | 79c | 1,300$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.98 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…de3dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,279$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b2…3d6fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,263$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab7…d546backed Yes | 19c | 1,238$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5141…5f5dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,230$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x642b…abccbacked Yes | 9c | 1,103$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 16c | 1,050$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…6241backed Yes | 19c | 1,030$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.72 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 907.16$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.2 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad8…00f7backed Yes | 8c | 880.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.33 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 4c | 813.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd48…db01backed Yes | 21c | 812.56$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.64 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fee…54fabacked Yes | 2c | 810.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6da5…a86bbacked Yes | 2c | 798.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 9c | 700$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 21c | 699.98$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 2c | 633.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9399…849cbacked Yes | 3c | 617.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1b…8ac9backed Yes | 11c | 600$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0532…9bbabacked Yes | 3c | 587.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…5e7fbacked Yes | 3c | 587.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3346…6bc7backed Yes | 3c | 583.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 17c | 532.84$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.58 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd9…d46ebacked Yes | 2c | 526.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa34…689bbacked Yes | 17c | 521.49$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 2c | 510$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 4c | 507.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b2…26abbacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe26a…f740backed Yes | 22c | 451.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 10c | 399.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2028…e658backed Yes | 18c | 380.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…a9d0backed Yes | 20c | 378.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…b81cbacked Yes | 3c | 373.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 12c | 364.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3d…4ebdbacked Yes | 4c | 347.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 10c | 330$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 7c | 321.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 6c | 305.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…0389backed Yes | 20c | 303.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0c…b4bbbacked Yes | 21c | 298.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b0…8512backed Yes | 4c | 289.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584c…f44fbacked Yes | 4c | 270$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…5a71backed Yes | 9c | 245.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec28…10ebbacked Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb484…341dbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7425…e4f0backed Yes | 22c | 207.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…48ffbacked Yes | 19c | 201.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 126 | 20.6%26 W · 100 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4a…fed9backed Yes | 12c | 200.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…376dbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…220abacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 84 | 14.3%12 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 15c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 18c | 199.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3e…9bc9backed Yes | 9c | 188.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31be…c9debacked Yes | 19c | 168.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2915…6669backed Yes | 17c | 166.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x214a…478cbacked Yes | 22c | 154.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10b…d883backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…6ca2backed Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9e…b6fbbacked Yes | 24c | 137.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 135.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 12c | 130$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3382…67cbbacked Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaed…db95backed Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…7c23backed Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9051…f1cfbacked Yes | 21c | 118.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 16–23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.