TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3382…67cb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
36
Categories scored
3
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Lol, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Lol at 53 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT2924.1%7 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+30.4%+$4.75
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$6.57
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+25%+$4
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$20.53
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+203%+$33.5
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$14.6
Will Elon tweet 330–359 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.53
Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 13–20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.33
Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 13–20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT+358.3%+$44.64
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.2
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.2
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 2–9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$23
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 2–9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.09
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.75
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 2–9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT+321.2%+$236.39
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.45
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 2–9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.4
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 2–9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.2
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 25–May 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT+201.8%+$178.38
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 25–May 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.39
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 25–May 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.1
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick71cpaid-56.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.