Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 25–May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef6ea4e68f2c30b2c6da3bae6163685b7a37f16dd7ba41f690f69fb7d58a844d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $446,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $462,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $446,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 269 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked No | 29c | 23,500$6,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,910.4 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 8c | 20,122$1,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,416.41 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 70c | 19,371$13,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,756.96 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 48c | 12,357$5,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,368.33 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 11c | 10,707$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,574.71 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 38c | 7,616$2,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,690.18 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 8c | 7,547$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,916.98 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 2c | 7,128$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.74 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 72c | 6,836$4,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,916.29 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 20c | 6,645$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.54 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,649.99 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 53c | 5,000$2,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,639.94 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9443…e5ecbacked No | 17c | 4,424$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 76c | 3,885$2,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.12 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 39c | 3,800$1,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,311.53 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 49c | 3,713$1,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,907.47 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbc…a24cbacked No | 36c | 3,185$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.96 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 9c | 2,957$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,678.22 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 31c | 2,786$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,929.51 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 22c | 2,785$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,181.68 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 2,617$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.06 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 28c | 2,591$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,869.42 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe04f…cfc5backed Yes | 79c | 2,574$2,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.93 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 71c | 2,364$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.07 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…e3f4backed Yes | 59c | 2,140$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 22c | 2,140$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,676.65 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 18c | 2,100$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,730.32 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 10c | 1,946$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,759.59 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a46…5b84backed Yes | 65c | 1,922$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.25 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 68c | 1,772$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.37 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 53c | 1,748$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.76 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd20e…7d58backed No | 20c | 1,710$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked No | 23c | 1,685$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.63 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked No | 61c | 1,646$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…b5f9backed Yes | 65c | 1,634$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.27 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 43c | 1,531$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.93 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 15c | 1,449$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.19 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 48c | 1,385$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.64 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 59c | 1,246$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.93 | 235 | 41.3%97 W · 138 L | -29.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 15c | 1,218$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.23 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 1,177$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.47 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 10c | 1,147$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.09 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a832backed Yes | 61c | 1,131$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.05 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,027$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.73 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…3e7dbacked Yes | 25c | 965.41$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.41 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 6c | 964.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…95bdbacked Yes | 61c | 933.21$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.18 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 76c | 916.42$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.94 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 20c | 891.09$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.69 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69bb…0f5cbacked Yes | 66c | 859.85$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.85 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 54c | 849.99$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 9c | 814.12$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.09 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 23c | 812.25$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.29 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 64c | 798.24$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.63 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 13c | 794.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.74 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 75c | 793.67$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.1 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 55c | 768.56$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.04 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd956…485fbacked Yes | 5c | 761.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 10c | 742.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.62 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 76c | 711.91$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.67 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 10c | 700$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 5c | 700$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 49c | 699.7$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.62 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 65c | 692$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.2 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 52c | 651.08$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.35 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 57c | 590.83$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.96 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f6…cce7backed Yes | 9c | 569.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +187.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 5c | 520$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587f…7765backed Yes | 58c | 508.78$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.44 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Yes | 9c | 501.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.55 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 43c | 500$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.08 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…9fcdbacked Yes | 13c | 481.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.37 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 9c | 452.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.38 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3836…8660backed Yes | 44c | 450.26$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.06 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865e…d006backed Yes | 78c | 450.03$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked No | 5c | 436.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x642b…abccbacked Yes | 9c | 427.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.78 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 66c | 420.74$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.05 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…c96ebacked Yes | 72c | 418.6$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.6 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 73c | 412.66$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.94 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 8c | 390$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.3 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa088…d438backed Yes | 71c | 379$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c6…8019backed Yes | 72c | 378.22$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.72 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50a…dc54backed Yes | 79c | 365.36$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6697…057abacked Yes | 64c | 359.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…ff62backed Yes | 76c | 353.04$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.73 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3789…c044backed Yes | 42c | 333.33$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa090…c736backed Yes | 9c | 328.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 43c | 311.04$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.8 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa47a…5879backed Yes | 8c | 309.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +312.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…b862backed Yes | 14c | 308$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.34 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18bf…3658backed Yes | 36c | 302.45$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.23 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Yes | 67c | 300.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.72 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe71b…7517backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.7 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 73c | 299.99$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 25–May 2?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 25–May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.