Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times April 25–May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70c99edb32b0a74d8aae37a5530369d1f454231ccfbe08e93285de8feda67e4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 1c | 5,050$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 11c | 4,787$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.19 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 4,518$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 4c | 3,330$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.99 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 7c | 2,642$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.41 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 11c | 2,536$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.21 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 2c | 2,437$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,075$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes | 7c | 1,998$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.86 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 4c | 1,820$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 2c | 1,772$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 10c | 1,554$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.37 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…f762backed Yes | 8c | 1,285$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 1c | 1,224$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…321dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,072$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 5c | 999$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 3c | 900$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8a…ec4cbacked Yes | 9c | 888.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +104%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f32…770abacked Yes | 3c | 884.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 4c | 877.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 235 | 41.3%97 W · 138 L | -29.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 5c | 849.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 6c | 847.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 8c | 777.32$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 10c | 749.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 672.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbb…a1d0backed Yes | 9c | 629.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 8c | 499.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 9c | 499.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 499$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 8c | 437.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 6c | 359.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 882 | 10.3%91 W · 791 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd9…d46ebacked Yes | 10c | 358$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 3c | 350$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Yes | 7c | 310$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 10c | 284.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 7c | 269.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 252 | 11.5%29 W · 223 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 240$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed Yes | 10c | 217.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…0821backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ec…fcf9backed Yes | 6c | 190$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…ee0fbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 12c | 162.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…0389backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 8c | 132.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times April 25–May 2?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 25–May 2?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 25–May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.