TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xccdc…567b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
349
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: World Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 56 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Sep 5, 2025, EDT22710.1%23 W · 204 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-35%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 227 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet between 480 and 509 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.94
Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$172.72
Will Elon tweet 385–399 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.74
Will Elon tweet 370–384 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.75
Will Elon tweet 355–369 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.94
Will Elon tweet 340–354 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.73
Will Elon tweet 310–324 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.35
Will Elon tweet 295–309 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$115.16
Will Elon tweet 280–294 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.48
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 22–August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$101.03
Will Elon tweet 250–264 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.91
Will Elon tweet 235–249 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$95.21
Will Elon tweet 220–234 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.86
Will Elon tweet 205–219 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.08
Will Elon tweet 190–204 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.74
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT+1,142.8%+$1,381.59
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 22–August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.91
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.72
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$209.85
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+1,356.4%+$1,483.82
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$97.89
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$388Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$388.06
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$785Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$785.16
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.65
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.58
Showing 25 of 227 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Aug 28, 2025, EDT4134.1%14 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Grimsby Town F.C beat Manchester United?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.7
Will West Ham win on 2025-05-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT+188.7%+$91.5
Will Southampton win on 2025-05-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.7
Will West Ham win on 2025-05-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$39
Will West Ham win on 2025-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$57.16
Will West Ham win on 2025-04-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$106.95
Will Everton win on 2025-04-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Manchester City vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Will Leicester vs. Liverpool end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$82.16
Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$97.52
Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$166.5
Will Aston Villa vs. Newcastle end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$117
Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$181
Will West Ham win on 2025-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$274Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$274.34
Will Manchester City win on 2025-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$24.5
Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$44
Will Liverpool vs. West Ham end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$82.1
Will West Ham win on 2025-04-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.04
Will Chelsea win on 2025-04-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$24.75
Will Brentford win on 2025-04-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$74.32
Will Everton win on 2025-04-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT+300%+$75
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-04-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$12.3
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-04-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.6
Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$24
Will West Ham win on 2025-04-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.94
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2025, EDT329.4%3 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-79.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump approval >45% on July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$163.86
Trump approval >40% on July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$174.85
Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$206.31
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$317.4
U.S. citizens transferred to El Salvador before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$87.5
Trump approval >40% on June 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$80.12
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on May 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.55
Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.4% on May 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$213.57
Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.5% and 43.9% on May 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.33
Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.5% and 44.9% on May 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.82
Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.5% and 44.9% on May 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.81
Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.5% and 43.9% on May 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.4% on May 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT+213.5%+$304.63
Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.0% and 43.9% on May 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$144.24
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on May 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$68.3
Trump approval >45% on May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$602Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$602.01
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$221.72
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.9% on April 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$285.25
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 44.0% on April 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$81.48
Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.0% and 43.9% on April 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.24
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on April 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.36
Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.9% on April 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.5
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$286Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+109.6%+$313.17
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on April 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.35
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on April 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$91.78
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.19per pick18cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canada tariffs on China in effect before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$9.2
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+488.1%+$907.78
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$720Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$719.99
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.25
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Andrew Cuomo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.37
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$507Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$507.49
Will the next Pope be from South America?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.87
Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+169.8%+$125.86
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$39
Canada election called before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$152.3
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.98
All 11 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$169.81
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+781.1%+$2,224.43
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.97
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$240
Will Barcelona win on 2025-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$77.53
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.57
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$110.67
Will Club Brugge win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.05
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Will Barcelona vs. Benfica end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.6
All 11 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2025, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick10cpaid+72.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2025, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+93.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$409Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$409.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump increase tariffs on China by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-04-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$37
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$784Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$784
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.