Ukraine · resolved market
Will Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97004cec761044f6eb772191377b3a352d3ec05ec0249a1bf5ca442ba1fac097
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,529,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,487,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,529,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 419 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ed1…b57ebacked Yes | 50c | 121,167$60,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60,220 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e9…d1a0backed No | 50c | 121,167$60,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60,220 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed No | 0c | 110,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfe…5e2fbacked No | 20c | 89,197$17,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,635.06 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 74c | 56,720$41,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,024.83 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked No | 11c | 53,707$6,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,018.69 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.24per pick | 41cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 72c | 52,180$37,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,654.11 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed No | 14c | 40,925$5,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,678.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4a…ebc2backed No | 21c | 30,588$6,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,325.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 28c | 30,193$8,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,395.76 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 19c | 29,567$5,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,564.21 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 10c | 26,115$2,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,570.27 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cce…cc4fbacked No | 20c | 23,103$4,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,623.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 43c | 22,560$9,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,647.36 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 78c | 22,414$17,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,891.71 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 0c | 19,645$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…8921backed No | 13c | 17,740$2,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,353.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 66c | 16,626$11,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,594.25 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 67c | 15,164$10,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,072.37 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked No | 23c | 13,948$3,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,227.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 72c | 13,861$10,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,855.43 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd6…3b62backed No | 53c | 13,289$7,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,064.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 0c | 13,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 79c | 12,778$10,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,708.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x863f…8775backed No | 28c | 12,193$3,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,425.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfce…a9aebacked No | 49c | 10,000$4,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,944.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…ac84backed Yes | 58c | 9,520$5,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,953.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 22c | 9,213$2,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,018.38 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…864bbacked No | 14c | 8,405$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked No | 18c | 8,143$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 64c | 7,999$5,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,874.04 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 9c | 7,650$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.88 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 65c | 7,588$4,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,625.41 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 7,157$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.23 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked Yes | 45c | 6,897$3,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,793.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 13c | 6,246$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.14 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ad…c4d5backed No | 7c | 5,646$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.26 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes | 80c | 5,463$4,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 10c | 5,080$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.64 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…e838backed Yes | 72c | 5,000$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 12c | 4,986$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.72 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c9…e070backed No | 23c | 4,841$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed No | 36c | 4,601$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 24c | 4,500$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 61c | 4,379$2,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700.96 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 67c | 4,376$2,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.02 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 9c | 4,343$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.02 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 59c | 4,195$2,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,730.27 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 73c | 4,114$2,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4092…6138backed No | 38c | 4,001$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6830…5258backed No | 19c | 3,999$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…2f5dbacked No | 33c | 3,916$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…6d4ebacked No | 46c | 3,893$1,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,790.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc158…f3cabacked No | 28c | 3,853$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.64 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…42debacked Yes | 53c | 3,638$1,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,723.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 1c | 3,571$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 14c | 3,187$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.74 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…9d60backed No | 12c | 3,166$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.17 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf485…53ccbacked No | 27c | 2,962$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.52 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 69c | 2,817$1,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.04 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f7…baaebacked No | 30c | 2,782$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c21…69debacked Yes | 67c | 2,649$1,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfb…b118backed No | 3c | 2,575$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 35c | 2,568$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.16 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4acf…eaf1backed No | 21c | 2,535$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.94 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…7addbacked No | 27c | 2,517$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.43 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 75c | 2,446$1,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.23 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 20c | 2,430$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.03 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 4c | 2,381$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87bf…3111backed No | 7c | 2,353$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked No | 4c | 2,325$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 17cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0004…ef4cbacked No | 20c | 2,300$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.32 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed No | 20c | 2,173$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.85 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e1…072cbacked No | 35c | 2,160$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 52c | 2,133$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.04 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…a431backed No | 35c | 2,084$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…bfacbacked No | 5c | 2,030$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed No | 26c | 2,018$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.96 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 23c | 2,000$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea15…c292backed No | 14c | 2,000$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed No | 13c | 2,000$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…03ccbacked Yes | 77c | 2,000$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked No | 18c | 1,950$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.34 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…e8b4backed Yes | 69c | 1,938$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked No | 45c | 1,906$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 11c | 1,896$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.01 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e6…61cdbacked No | 30c | 1,874$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7830…783fbacked No | 34c | 1,857$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 20c | 1,850$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 23c | 1,847$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.53 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 74c | 1,847$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.42 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 16c | 1,844$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 80c | 1,833$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a2…8c84backed No | 10c | 1,821$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda2…45f9backed No | 20c | 1,788$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +39%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed No | 33c | 1,783$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…c6c9backed Yes | 65c | 1,763$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.52 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4e…1370backed Yes | 79c | 1,757$1,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed No | 20c | 1,730$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 78c | 1,714$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.34 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.