Macro Indicators · resolved market
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cdaaffebed8b3e1833db3bd4c976afd138e521431a1ef37c377fc417888bf89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $679,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $688,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $679,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 471 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8067…5cc2backed No | 37c | 110,330$40,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,822.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc1…6217backed Yes | 63c | 110,320$69,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,818.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44c…c458backed No | 64c | 39,217$25,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,098.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc3…f339backed Yes | 36c | 39,217$14,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,098.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 71c | 26,973$19,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,082.72 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -6.5wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…de55backed Yes | 35c | 19,066$6,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,396.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 35c | 17,432$6,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,306.17 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 73c | 16,952$12,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,347.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 30c | 16,797$5,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,691.05 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 64c | 11,281$7,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,236.04 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 68c | 10,322$6,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,996.77 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 25c | 9,468$2,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,079.41 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfe…5e2fbacked No | 63c | 8,969$5,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,624.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ef…16bdbacked No | 33c | 7,500$2,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,490 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 36c | 6,982$2,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,460.84 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd16…0be8backed Yes | 38c | 6,938$2,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,272.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…d3d6backed Yes | 24c | 6,667$1,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,059.23 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 48c | 5,792$2,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,990.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ab…84f7backed Yes | 28c | 5,597$1,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,028.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +256.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 24c | 5,254$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,970.44 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 69c | 4,541$3,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,111.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb381…98f8backed Yes | 27c | 4,080$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,982.76 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 22c | 4,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…389dbacked No | 41c | 4,000$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd572…7bdabacked No | 34c | 3,568$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x776d…ec4bbacked Yes | 68c | 3,497$2,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 32c | 3,426$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 36c | 3,219$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,045.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…9475backed Yes | 65c | 3,192$2,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 70c | 3,108$2,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 76c | 3,000$2,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb3…92e2backed No | 52c | 3,000$1,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,567.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked No | 65c | 2,980$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,940.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 61c | 2,848$1,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +233.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5b…23cabacked Yes | 62c | 2,821$1,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…07d4backed No | 36c | 2,801$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 59c | 2,652$1,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.93 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9443…e5ecbacked Yes | 69c | 2,594$1,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +151.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 64c | 2,399$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 29c | 2,271$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.6 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 35c | 2,216$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,436.12 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 55c | 2,187$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.19 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…0ac5backed Yes | 65c | 2,140$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 35c | 2,015$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.31 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +182.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccc…cd45backed Yes | 33c | 2,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +198.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…f6cdbacked No | 49c | 1,979$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ef…05bebacked No | 31c | 1,967$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed No | 30c | 1,865$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 44c | 1,855$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,831$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf215…9114backed Yes | 52c | 1,820$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…9b16backed Yes | 41c | 1,796$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd23…0242backed Yes | 26c | 1,792$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…4a51backed No | 29c | 1,698$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 64c | 1,597$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.88 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 66c | 1,560$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.11 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked No | 56c | 1,526$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3436…600bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,519$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +241%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09f7…a365backed Yes | 69c | 1,500$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0deb…12c9backed Yes | 67c | 1,500$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 63c | 1,500$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe408…232bbacked Yes | 44c | 1,479$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fc…44dfbacked No | 71c | 1,400$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c01…d612backed No | 62c | 1,395$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 67c | 1,300$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9968…a104backed Yes | 60c | 1,295$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed Yes | 41c | 1,294$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…08b5backed No | 36c | 1,281$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…1081backed No | 49c | 1,264$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 35c | 1,234$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.11 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 59c | 1,200$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x862b…e9e5backed No | 66c | 1,186$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 33c | 1,173$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa699…785fbacked No | 26c | 1,162$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked No | 44c | 1,100$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…3291backed No | 80c | 1,076$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf09c…383dbacked Yes | 76c | 1,046$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 39c | 1,023$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.29 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1a…a81cbacked Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb741…b462backed Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 38c | 999.99$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a2…adc9backed No | 66c | 995$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…accfbacked Yes | 34c | 940$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 33c | 925.4$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 52c | 899.15$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.3 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 20c | 884.49$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…0552backed No | 70c | 883.76$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…a348backed No | 29c | 861$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0653…690ebacked Yes | 34c | 830$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…8f8bbacked No | 38c | 827.54$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 818.42$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.3 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 59c | 807.15$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…5ae4backed Yes | 31c | 806.45$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a7…79f3backed Yes | 70c | 762$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a46…a5c5backed No | 66c | 760$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 44c | 750$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…e3c1backed No | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x613d…d946backed No | 55c | 743.45$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…9cbdbacked No | 40c | 742.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.