World Politics · resolved market
Will the next Pope be from South America?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb553ea306f2eb004b78817508c961e0aa7d3538de894187bd42737421cf220c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $267,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $267,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02d3…2136backed Yes | 2c | 29,756$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.7 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +365.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 17,800$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847d…13d0backed Yes | 0c | 12,351$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +482.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 11,198$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,004$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 9,583$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 1c | 8,253$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.75 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…b9eebacked Yes | 1c | 7,802$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…0bd2backed Yes | 1c | 7,273$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 7,055$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd1…7af0backed Yes | 2c | 6,586$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…4f33backed Yes | 5c | 6,374$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.57 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…f62abacked Yes | 1c | 4,468$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 3,758$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,671$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 1c | 3,542$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,322$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89d4…e370backed Yes | 1c | 3,091$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 3,004$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…da02backed Yes | 2c | 2,617$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,243$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd199…37a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,116$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 1c | 2,048$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf80c…7eeabacked Yes | 3c | 2,012$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc810…3f82backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x249c…2783backed Yes | 3c | 1,971$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b9…d65cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,832$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 1c | 1,788$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b11…d869backed Yes | 1c | 1,446$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88f…c334backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +174.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c30…3a87backed Yes | 2c | 945.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a10…63d3backed Yes | 2c | 850.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +154.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc405…d66ebacked Yes | 2c | 848.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 2c | 801.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41eb…2c08backed Yes | 1c | 785.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 730.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…ef48backed Yes | 2c | 647.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…050abacked Yes | 2c | 554.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 60c | 350.11$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.69 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 10c | 119.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Pope be from South America?this page
- Will the next Pope be from Africa?No won
- Will the next Pope be from Asia?No won
- Will the next Pope be from Europe?No won
- Will the next Pope be from North America?Yes won
- Will the next Pope be from Oceania?No won
- Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.