World Politics · resolved market
Will the next Pope be from North America?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fa72926309670e8ef8d8b7ebe8fe06bf50ba4bc9b43187218ce3ec3ca89f200
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $300,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $264,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $300,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f7b…aff4backed Yes | 3c | 33,517$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,362.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +1,350.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac06…f4f0backed No | 0c | 26,389$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa54…08dbbacked Yes | 3c | 25,107$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,247.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +2,823.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 15,323$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,848.26 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 3c | 9,235$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,957.56 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 3c | 8,500$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,273.06 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 6,100$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,947.45 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…2136backed Yes | 3c | 5,188$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,049.05 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +365.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 1c | 5,029$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,968.08 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d74…99e6backed Yes | 3c | 4,300$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,164.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,070%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 4c | 3,445$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,300.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 3cpaid | +375.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024b…b2c8backed Yes | 3c | 3,414$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,298.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +1,378.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,374$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,314.13 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,017$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,923.86 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 3c | 2,757$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,684.18 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847d…13d0backed Yes | 2c | 2,560$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,511.35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +482.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe71c…dcecbacked Yes | 37c | 2,557$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,618.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 2c | 2,435$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,397.43 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 2,312$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,231.69 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6d…48e5backed Yes | 4c | 2,291$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,190.75 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +154.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3466…8728backed Yes | 4c | 2,275$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,174.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +1,106.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 2,179$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,116.47 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 12c | 1,982$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.82 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.27per pick | 8cpaid | +854.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc678…e738backed Yes | 4c | 1,964$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,893.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 18cpaid | +1,001.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…55d9backed Yes | 3c | 1,732$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,682.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +1,667%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bde…d9d4backed Yes | 6c | 1,626$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,508.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…191cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,454.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 6cpaid | +303.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d3…a6c6backed Yes | 2c | 1,169$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +2,905.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 52c | 1,150$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.15 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…bc49backed Yes | 3c | 1,098$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.77 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,088$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.38 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 1c | 1,080$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.77 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa5…fdcbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,073$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +5,266.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 4c | 1,033$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a10…63d3backed Yes | 5c | 1,017$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.23 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +154.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf502…26e8backed Yes | 6c | 1,017$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.02 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +375.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 21c | 929$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.41 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…e233backed Yes | 3c | 926.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 4cpaid | +389%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 2c | 911.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.93 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 12c | 826$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 12c | 825.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +15.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 3c | 824.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.2 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…9b67backed Yes | 2c | 735.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +843.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 2c | 699.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.17 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8e…08e4backed Yes | 4c | 586.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,242.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…a94bbacked Yes | 5c | 535.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 5c | 510.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.9 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +792.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf88f…c334backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.86 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +174.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32c6…9d47backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +365.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b8…b7e8backed Yes | 42c | 488.3$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.3 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes | 2c | 479.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.62 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 52c | 275.6$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.48 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 48c | 228$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.96 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 123$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Pope be from North America?this page
- Will the next Pope be from Africa?No won
- Will the next Pope be from Asia?No won
- Will the next Pope be from Europe?No won
- Will the next Pope be from Oceania?No won
- Will the next Pope be from South America?No won
- Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.