Will the next Pope be from Africa?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb906c3feb63c4de0e6c3d160bf7427b7877c0ef37ca2c1632f0a1a636c9db85e

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 8, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $476,307
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $358,640

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $476,307 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x011f…1122backed Yes	0c	100,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	10c	17,708$1,713 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,713.41	688	3.6%25 W · 663 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Yes	10c	15,000$1,545 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,545	62	25.8%16 W · 46 L	-5.0wins	-0.08per pick	34cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed Yes	13c	8,344$1,101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100.97	54	35.2%19 W · 35 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	30cpaid	+24%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80c8…e6bdbacked Yes	13c	7,749$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes	10c	7,578$754 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$754.45	165	35.8%59 W · 106 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	6,689$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.39	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed Yes	15c	5,979$907 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$906.78	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf88f…c334backed Yes	16c	5,089$817 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$816.94	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+2.4wins	+0.13per pick	35cpaid	+174.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed Yes	15c	3,537$531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530.74	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes	15c	2,782$421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420.94	476	6.5%31 W · 445 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…8e3bbacked Yes	13c	2,055$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.07	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.13per pick	9cpaid	+46.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes	12c	2,000$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234	90	53.3%48 W · 42 L	+10.7wins	+0.12per pick	41cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa5a7…89cbbacked Yes	18c	2,000$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.99	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b4b…31ecbacked Yes	17c	1,748$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36f9…7e3bbacked Yes	6c	1,742$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	8c	1,732$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.2	576	36.3%209 W · 367 L	-27.2wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes	7c	1,692$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.01	121	33.1%40 W · 81 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ef6…b633backed Yes	19c	1,588$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.03	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes	16c	1,562$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.08	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45e…2b92backed Yes	15c	1,513$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes	7c	1,461$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.62	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	13c	1,452$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.84	563	14.6%82 W · 481 L	-39.3wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed Yes	11c	1,400$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.43	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	+41.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Yes	5c	1,320$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.8	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-73.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes	17c	1,298$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.19	77	40.3%31 W · 46 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99c6…c9f9backed Yes	17c	1,183$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	29cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes	15c	1,181$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.86	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-83.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3832…35e1backed Yes	19c	1,052$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	+84.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8933…1495backed Yes	11c	1,010$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.08	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3216backed Yes	9c	999.98$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.21per pick	35cpaid	-80.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8e0…b2edbacked Yes	10c	953.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed Yes	13c	924.75$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.22	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes	17c	910$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.76	120	40%48 W · 72 L	+5.6wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x142f…0f85backed Yes	7c	765.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	13c	765.22$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.34	1,022	28%286 W · 736 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9944…b035backed Yes	14c	735.06$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes	7c	730.9$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.66	51	31.4%16 W · 35 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+81.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed Yes	14c	721.33$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.42	63	36.5%23 W · 40 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd566…3e2dbacked Yes	10c	709.98$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.76	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b6d…a472backed Yes	12c	705.99$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	13c	673.54$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.31	88	21.6%19 W · 69 L	-3.7wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bf8…39d3backed Yes	15c	671.21$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-46.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed Yes	11c	656.88$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.5	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-65.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes	17c	645.61$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.9	56	33.9%19 W · 37 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15e8…cb15backed Yes	16c	641.65$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf502…26e8backed Yes	12c	640.94$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.99	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.09per pick	5cpaid	+375.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes	5c	554.97$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.75	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	+4.6wins	+0.13per pick	33cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf9dc…528fbacked Yes	9c	527.69$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3f1…55d9backed Yes	10c	501.5$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.1	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.43per pick	7cpaid	+1,667%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cbe…fce9backed Yes	16c	456.47$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.53	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf03c…a8bbbacked Yes	5c	433.23$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe28a…f973backed Yes	17c	412.11$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	16c	398.28$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.32	347	26.8%93 W · 254 L	-12.3wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3dc…c3e2backed Yes	12c	393.67$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a2c…934abacked Yes	15c	390.99$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.1	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea6f…0c0abacked Yes	13c	388.62$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c65…b9eebacked Yes	15c	369.54$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.55	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-86.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc3c…9b67backed Yes	13c	362.37$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	+843.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c77…af46backed Yes	12c	350.74$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.28	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	-4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47bf…b84fbacked Yes	12c	331.17$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.65	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes	10c	328.58$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.25	131	18.3%24 W · 107 L	-6.9wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes	13c	326.14$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.34	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-2.0wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a10…63d3backed Yes	14c	324.26$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+154.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7aa…608bbacked Yes	18c	324.04$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.16	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb411…120ebacked Yes	12c	324$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.26	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.25per pick	25cpaid	+27.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1060…672bbacked Yes	12c	319.53$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5df…2b0abacked Yes	13c	319.08$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	12c	317.45$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.41	367	42.5%156 W · 211 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes	14c	311.25$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.83	43	30.2%13 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x501f…f746backed Yes	10c	308.44$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.28	87	26.4%23 W · 64 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	+258.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81a0…6feebacked Yes	8c	302.81$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	19cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes	14c	300$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x258d…4fd6backed Yes	14c	300$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.1	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked No	65c	300$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0877…fa92backed Yes	35c	300$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	35cpaid	-71.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3aa0…e211backed Yes	9c	300$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.45	5	40%2 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed Yes	15c	300$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.5	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-42%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf639…5838backed Yes	13c	299.98$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.3	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-13%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0709…2dccbacked Yes	6c	277.04$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.94	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.26per pick	46cpaid	-73.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7148…acbcbacked Yes	19c	269.87$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ce…ee0bbacked Yes	14c	250.26$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed Yes	11c	250$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	200	34%68 W · 132 L	+9.0wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes	12c	250$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.75	513	2.9%15 W · 498 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x333e…f674backed Yes	10c	241.18$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x264a…8ee3backed Yes	12c	237.09$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.39	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x847d…13d0backed Yes	9c	236.1$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.49	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+482.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes	11c	235.15$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.34	83	37.3%31 W · 52 L	+4.2wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	+104%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0be1…4201backed Yes	11c	233.91$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.63	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc82e…9460backed Yes	11c	233.74$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.31	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf61e…9716backed Yes	13c	230.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x49d1…7b96backed Yes	11c	226$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.06	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-2.1wins	-0.17per pick	34cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes	7c	222$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.54	39	48.7%19 W · 20 L	+4.8wins	+0.12per pick	36cpaid	+18%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd740…54f6backed Yes	9c	220.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-60.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30a1…cb4dbacked Yes	12c	208.62$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ede…c417backed Yes	12c	203.22$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.49	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-4.2wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ca7…81ddbacked Yes	13c	200$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.8	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+36.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ff4…55bcbacked Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	29cpaid	-81.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8eb2…b38bbacked Yes	17c	200$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.75	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes	18c	200$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.15	192	37.5%72 W · 120 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will the next Pope be from Africa?this page
Will the next Pope be from Asia?No won
Will the next Pope be from Europe?No won
Will the next Pope be from North America?Yes won
Will the next Pope be from Oceania?No won
Will the next Pope be from South America?No won
Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the next Pope be from Africa?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event